FOR MONDAY: (4/17) Markets are closed on Friday but economic cycles continue to come out. Fear cycles are still strong into Tuesday so we suspect that whatever happens over the weekend, it won’t be roses and lollypops. Sometimes extreme moves on Sunday night have no place to go by early Monday and if we get huge gaps on Sunday, you have to expect that is possible. Still, the market may be in trouble into Tuesday and maybe much of next week. We’ll put out an update on Sunday night if geo-political bombings and war cycles create too much potential energy but hopefully we can enjoy our holiday weekend and you can also. Three-day weekends are difficult to trade under normal circumstances so be careful out there.
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX (electronic)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/17) Our original target of 100.07 came in quickly and the strong bounce has us wonder if there will be flight to quality next week? We do favor a move to 9925 but cycles look complicated. Starting to think that the 9800-9770 target for May has an increased chance of happening. Normal cycles look higher next week but we’re in war market cycles so will have to see. We may just have to get out.
OVERALL: Patterns are such that the current rally is over and was a 2nd-wave retracement and then the bears will take over for 9823 or 9770 later in April.
NEAR TERM: Cycles are wild and surprises are very possible next week so may be tricky to play. April cycles seem choppy and a secondary low is possible by April 27-28. The market then seems higher in May-July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming by Sunday/Monday; higher into April 18-20; lower April 21.
