FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11) Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Not sure FOMC minutes will mean much but they always cause the computer Algos to trigger. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11) Running out of time with cycles for this market to squeeze higher but we’ve learned to be patient. Without a break of 2540, the market still could hit upper numbers. While action off the highs seemed a bit impulsive, we’re still waiting for definitive proof. Minimum upside is 2560 with key resistance at 2562. The most bullish pattern would allow at 20-point congestion triangle to happen between 2540-2560 and then new highs. Cycles are a bit precarious and we have seen some of the current fear cycles create huge sell-offs so it is really harder to be long with news and North Korea and the Trump tax plan dead. If we get up to 2560-2, we’re ok selling and see what develops.
Natural day-trade resistance will again be the 2550 region with a break needed below 2538 to get the market doing something bigger. Given the fund forces that use cheap money to buy stocks no matter what’s happening in the world, wondering how if the projection to 2477 on the weekly chart has a chance but very open—particularly between now and next Monday.
We remain concerned about fear cycles increasing and North Korea and the market could easily fall at some point later in the week if news Algos seem dire but for now we have to trade off of patterns and the trend.
Without a break of 2538, there’s no reason to expect this market to fall apart. We remain concerned about fear cycles increasing and North Korea and the market could easily fall at some point later in the week if news algos seem dire but for now we have to trade off of patterns and the trend.
NEAR TERM: Thinking that the market will start coming off once 2562 comes and be in trouble until about Nov. 6. I suspect we’ll have to wait until the last minute for sales.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: The 29-day cycle for Wednesday looks lower.
