FOR THURSDAY: (6/29) GDP will highlight action on Thursday but then we’re winding down into a window where people will disappear going into a long holiday weekend even if July 4th is next Tuesday. Some financial markets close early on Thursday so check with your broker.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (6/29) We had foreseen a possible V-bottom reversal on Wednesday and it got confirmed. S & P got close to key support 2412.50 within 1 point NQ is soaring off of the lows even though it didn’t get to the ideal target of 5594. Resistance overnight at 2447 with support for buys at 2437 and 2434.50. Patterns project 2470 and 2479 so our long-term pattern is still intact. Market should be a buy in the 2434-37 if you’re willing to hold over the long weekend.
The larger pattern had suggested dramatic movement between 2409-2460 and then eventually a push up to 2520. As always, watch NQ as a break below 5500 there might call the end temporarily to this enormous run. We can favor longs on Thursday and into July 5 overall before we have to worry about the next pullback.
OVERALL: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher June 29; lower into June 30; higher into July 5.
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