FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Still a really quiet week on the news front. Key cycle is Friday for many markets so not in a rush to get into major trend changes until Monday. Will assume that gold will hold up. Open to a congestive pullback for stocks for a few days but that seems like a luxury these days.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (11/9) Stocks should make a divergent high toward 2600-2605 by Monday. Cycles have been suggesting a pullback on Thursday/Friday but it may be just congestive nonsense. Market should continue to stay above 2577. We’ll have some day-trading in the morning but have to get ready for a major short soon. Ideal cash target has been 2617-18, which would pull futures up to 2620.
SHORT-TERM (11/3) Stocks are running out of time for more upside. Upper cash pattern completions are at 2617-8. We could see the market hold up as late as Nov. 13 but the market looks lower into Nov. 17 and while the market is often up into Thanksgiving, at best it looks sideways to lower and then lower into Dec. 6-8 around the budget crisis deadline. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22.
OVERALL: We’ve been watching 2600-4 as a key pattern completion for futures but that could extend to 2615-20 based on cash patterns. At the moment, we can only count on a 110-point pullback into December, which would be less than 5%. We think that 2490-2500 will hold dips this year.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Retracing/lower Thursday.
