FOR FRIDAY: (5/12) More reports on Friday and lately Fridays have been friendly but the 29-day cycle is weak by 9-10 am and that may lead to a weekend profit-taking bout. Metals also look lower on Friday and it may be a dull pre-weekend affair.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (5/12) Market went a bit deeper than 2383 to 2379 but did recover nicely into the close. We had a bias toward lower prices on Friday and given the S & P is the weaker one, we will probably consider shorts in the morning if we can get a good risk/reward. Daily stochastics have rolled over and 2394 isn’t likely to come out. Still not convinced that anything dramatic to the downside will happen and market still looks like it could hold up next week. Follow NQ. If it hits 5700-5, then a short in SP may set up.
WEEKLY CHART: Maybe a 15% fall from June to October but a seasonal drop usually happens after mid-June. NQ has clearly needed new highs to 5707 and probably more before the S & P will cave in.
LONGER TERM: (4/26) Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5400–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2150 is the most likely first downward target into September/October if the market can close below 2300. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping/lower Friday; lower Sunday; volatile Monday/Tuesday; higher into May 19.
