FOR MONDAY: (4/23) Not sure what to expect over the weekend. The trade was not happy with the Democratic Party suing Trump and company and the insanity of it just seems another way of keeping negative press energy going. The inside scoop appears that Putin and Trump want to reconcile so there has to be a new media daze to keep people glued to their TVs. Some minor technical damage for stocks, and we’re bearish into the end of the month but need a good bounce to sell, and it should be there for a few days.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (4/23) Ideal temporary pattern completion would be at 2646-47, and not sure it will come in on Sunday night–and if it does, it would set up a buy for Monday/Tuesday bounce. We had Friday down but weren’t aggressive enough selling for day-traders. The lower number doesn’t have to come in first, and the most likely bounce target is 2698. Lately, Mondays have rallied. We’re open to seeing lower action on Sunday night if politics get the market riled but the market may now be too oversold to chase if 2650 comes in.
OVERALL: A move down into the end of the month would be an “e” wave but not clear how far it will go, and we like the seasonal bias for higher prices in May, and cycles are supportive. If the market is going to start an e-wave fall, it’s more likely to be between April 25-30. We haven’t measured that fall but it doesn’t have to be huge.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Bottoming Sunday; Higher Monday/Tuesday; lower into April 30.
