DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/28) Resistance overnight at 2157-2159.50. Much above 2160 and we may have to rethink the pattern and what’s happening. The most bullish scenario and would probably project 2122 on futures. Cash still wants to fill the 2164 gap from Monday. Deutsche Bank isn’t any better and that will still hang over the market.
OVERALL: Key support at 2122-2125. Three larger waves down could easily go to 2087 or 2072 this week and we had started to give up on that scenario after the Yellen save last week. Open to more if news gets messy but usually you can’t get too bearish in October. We’re waiting for the Merkel save after her practical and realistic announcement this week. Given the EU bail-in capacity and the impact on the economy, she is not thinking like a businessman.
WEEKLY CHART All the patterns and seasonals point to higher prices into October, with 2218 being the next larger target. Will need some major unexpected news item to rattle the markets and so far it may be Deutsche Bank but maybe more coming.
SHORT-TERM: (9/26) Market may consolidate before Oct. 7 employment report and then take off, with Oct. 17-19 possibly being a pullback area. Until we see lows in Sept. 30, we’re not totally sure and what the pattern is saying. Given at least a 3-3-5 pattern happening, the 2100 region is a minimum target if 2125 holds, we bounce and then fall another 50 points or so.
LARGER PICTURE: (9/22) The proportions of the weekly and monthly charts from the 2009 low suggest that the whole move up won’t be complete until 2018 at around at least 2409. For those waiting for a crash or major bear market, we think they will be disappointed. The wave-one low from 2009-2011 took three years. We have been looking for a January high toward at least 2320 once the Sept. pullback is over.
