(2/19-20) With Europe and Asia open, market could still be pretty active by the Monday open. Most patterns are on schedule. We hate three-day weekends because by Tuesday morning, whatever has happened over the weekend usually gets faded and you have to be ready to take profits and go the other way. We’re clear enough about larger patterns and trends to stay out of trouble.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (2/19-20) The pattern that we saw on Thursday appears to be manifesting although we didn’t have the courage to play it before the 3-day weekend. In fact the S & P projects 2354 on futures and 2359 on cash but cash won’t reopen until Tuesday. Usually we find the market lightly bid after US holidays so there are a few points to make. Once 2359 comes on Tuesday on cash, the market will set up a sale going into Thursday.
OVERALL: S & P futures need to close below 2327 to issue a stronger sell signal. Patterns on cash are clearer and even a push to 2333 on cash, which is about 2329 on futures, would be a 4th wave and not negate a slight new high early next week to 2360 on cash or 2355-56 on futures. At this point, the 34 point pullback would come from Tuesday’s high on cash at 2359. I suspect we will see a max of 2330 on futures by Thursday. Even a correction due Feb. 22-23-24 from a new high into next week may only be 34 points from the high, which would mean that 2326 will hold into pullbacks next week and even then a slight new high to 2370 on cash would squeeze out.
NEAR TERM: (2/15) We threw out our 2330 cash pattern completion when it was taken out by 10 points and now as they say in the Honeymooners, it’s going to the moon, Ralphie boy. We had a target of 2500 for 2018 but now we wonder if that will be the spring high. We should get an 80-100 point pullback in March into early April but will that be from 2400-2420. Too hard to count the telescoping nature. Still thinking an early April low and then new highs this year still and not thinking crash this year and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% of things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Sunday/Monday; topping Tuesday; lower into Thursday.