FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) While it looks like we got the post-3-day weekend reversal for stocks, not confirmed yet for gold and the dollar or crude although they are stalling. We do have the budget deficit and Bitcoin falling out of bed on Asian crackdowns on Bitcoin action. Cycles remain a bit volatile still but given buy energy for stocks we wouldn’t be shocked to get a rubber band bounce by the morning.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) Our day-trade update sold 2806 and took nice profits but had suggested that the market needed to go to key MA support near 2770. Are we starting the 70-point pullback? A sale near 2800 was a natural think to do and cycle had pointed lower this week but we’re so jaded on expecting pullbacks. Daily chart patterns point to 2692 if acceleration now happens through 2665. Have seen so many suck punches that even if want to sell we need to wait for a 62% retracement up toward 2793.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.
