(7/7) Employment report is always one of the more volatile events of the month and the surprise may be higher than expected based on positive dollar cycles and yet stocks look lower. Seeing higher bonds and lower gold on Friday.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (7/7) Missed the sale last night. Market went lower than the 2312-14 region by a few points. Market too close to 2400-2 to be selling. A surprise to the bullish side could allow 2438 but not in the cycles and with cycle lows into Monday, it seems vulnerable to having its back broken. At this point we would be thrilled to get a bounce to 2421.
OVERALL: Until 2390 comes out, bears will have to claw their way. The rally into Wednesday was feeble and wobbly and we’re open to the other shoe dropping.
WEEKLY CHART: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into July 10.
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