FOR FRIDAY: (11/25) Markets do not really close much because of Asian and European trading so expect to come back to some movement and you can watch until noon on Thursday morning and again at 5 pm on Thursday night if you are bored with your Thanksgiving dinner. Not much to add to Wednesday’s report but we’ll update you on Friday morning. We’re working on our monthly report and hope to get it complete by Monday or Tuesday of next week.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (11/25) We closed out any remaining S & P longs at the close of Wednesday. Market still might inch up to 2208 by Friday in thin holiday trade. It’s often more likely to get grinding/topping action the week of Thanksgiving than anything significant to the downside, as there’s no volume and computers will make money buying minor dips. More likely to see a pullback the first three days of next week. Cash projects 2211 and that could push futures up to 2208. Last week we had been thinking that 2211 and 2217 had chance. It’s still too much to get beared up although Friday has the best chance of being down especially if 2208 comes in. Top-picking for a 30-40 point pullback may be more productive next week.
OVERALL: Dec. looks weak and a larger pullback is very possible to 2100 max. but more likely 2148-50, and seasonally the market tends to be lower into Dec. 15. We’re expecting new highs next year but we probably will have a congestive mess until then. Some cycles suggest a lot of tensions in the world in December and not sure if stocks will be upset by it. Dollar closer to key resistance but need some major event to change the trend there. Key support at 2170.
BIG PICTURE: The market is acting like it is in a 3-of-3 expansion wave and the current projection is up to 2269 and 2300 into 1st quarter. Given the speculative energy out there, no one should be looking for some massive movement lower now. We saw this type of move coming last week and we thought it had meant a Hillary victory but the move was going to happen no matter what based on the speculative cycle. Market would have to take out 2100 to turn bearish.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways into Friday.
