FOR MONDAY: (9/18) Chances of the market coming off from 2500 on the S & P are strong if any bad news hits. We like to see the market down hard the Monday before FOMC so they can buy it back and we often see a 25-30 point dip. Usually we get a lot of congestive noise before FOMC and we’re not quite sure how the market will play out on Wednesday and we need a few more puzzle pieces before then. Has been hard to take anything home lately with a lot of saber-rattling with North Korea and others.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (9/18) Support at 2496 need to come out to set a more negative tone. Unlikely that 2500 will come out before the FOMC meeting but if it does, we could see 2519 quickly. Often the week before FOMC, one can get a congestive range of 25-30 points so probably 2470 will be the most we see over the next week; not sure for the best day for that to happen but often it’s the Monday before FOMC. NQ eventually projects 6035 and closed below 6000.
Support at 2485.75 and 2480. It is unlikely that 2500 will come out before the FOMC meeting. Not sure what will shake this market up.
OVERALL: Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Sunday; higher Monday; generally higher into Sept. 22.
