FOR FRIDAY: (11/18) Speculative cycles are still strong on Friday if acceleration wants to happen. Usually the trade is worn out on Friday and takes profits and gives us a break for a sideways day. People disappear for the holidays so volume should drop next week and trading becomes dangerous sometimes in thin conditions. We’ll probably take profits on short euros and gold and will see if the S & P can take out 2200 but will take partial profits.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (11/18) Cash broke out and projects 2191 and extensions on cash are up to 2216. We will easily see 2190.50 on futures. Will we get pre-weekend profit-taking and congestion near old highs? Very possible. Still, cash projects a chance of breaking out to 2216 and futures to 2220 and we see no cyclical shift on Friday on Sunday. We have a bias toward a pullback into Wednesday from Monday but it doesn’t have to be dramatic–and if it’s not, we could hold up into Dec. 1st.
OVERALL: Optimism for the US isn’t likely to stop but still there are some shadows from the post-election unrest. There’s a lot of speculative energy this week peaking into Friday/Monday. In the past it has led to higher prices so a surge to 2220 this week wouldn’t be a surprise, and that would create 5 waves higher and set up congestion before Thanksgiving. The chance for a pullback to 2148 again is possible but less likely. We’re long SSO on our ETF Timer.
