FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Frustrating day in that the market ended lower but had a wild early morning spike that took out our protective stops. We at least expect new lows overnight but the market may do another sucker punch if the trade decides to head for the exits early.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Frustrating day, as we didn’t want the market to go beyond 2642 plus slippage, and the slippage was a bit more today and cash never violated key pattern for new lows. With the close near the lows, hard to get into shorts. Cash closed at 2699 with key cash support now at 2650. Overnight action could go up to 2515 and 2519. We have mixed cycles for Thursday but are favoring end of the month profit-taking hitting.
We originally thought that short-covering could develop on Thursday and Friday into the long weekend. Still, more likely we often see end of the month dumps by funds in profit-taking and if patterns continue to show downward momentum, not seeing any reason to be too optimistic. In this news environment we need to be cautious.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower overnight; sideways short-covering into Thursday/Friday.
