FOR MONDAY: (9/25) Another tense weekend, as the war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. There are also a lot of dire prophetic predictions and we have had our share of volcano and earthquake energy around the planet and stocks still managed to close near their highs—but not necessarily Nasdaq. Merkel elections over the weekend could swing the Euro a bit and weekend profit-taking there and that could create an impact.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (9/25) We have a bias toward weaker action into Monday and we wanted to be short. Stocks still under pressure led by a weak NQ. Threats from N. Korea are at the forefront. Key S & P support now all the way down to 2485-6, a key level that we had talked for a few days and now it may become a reality by Sunday/Monday. Doubt that 2507 will come out before we get to 2486. Major support at 2479.50. NQ cycles are more bearish into Monday and we’ll look for a better risk/reward there.
NEAR TERM: There is a larger cycle that will continue to hold this market up into Wednesday/Thursday and so any shorts have to scramble quickly.
OVERALL: As long as 2486 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2519 would come in.
Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Sunday; lower Monday; lower Tuesday; higher into Wednesday.
