FOR TUESDAY: (6/27) Stocks may open lower based on NQ patterns and projections but still look like they will come back into Thursday. Gold and silver completed key patterns earlier than we expected but may retest them and those markets aren’t done until later in July. Dollar could come still off another day.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (6/27) The market may be sideways to lower in the morning but should continue to come back into late Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Our day-trade service had a nice sale in the 2447 area looking for 2438 and we were surprised that the market came off even more than that. We had noted that NQ patterns usually keep us out of trouble and NQ had perfectly held 5763 on Friday and had a strong close and has bounced strongly up overnight; NQ had held up better but missed the upper target of 5856 by a few points.
Cash usually gives us the best clue and cash support is at 2434 for Tuesday with daily chart patterns projecting 2469.
We continue to stay open to 2520 coming in by mid-July on this market and not sure what disruptive forces will enter now to knock this market lower. The market has been good at climbing a wall of fear and worry for a month now and maybe only something with North Korea in July will finally tip the scales.
OVERALL: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into June 28-29; lower into June 30.
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