FOR THURSDAY: (4/27) Bank of Japan overnight and then ECB and Korea is still making background noise. The problem is that there‘s usually a reason not to trade every day. Sometimes you have to take a brave stand based on pattern. ECB days are filled with surprises more than most so stay alert. Stocks still seem the safest buy on dips based on NQ patterns and breakouts there to new highs which will bring the rest of the market higher.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (4/27) Stocks rallied to 2395 and sold off. Support at 2379.50 if you’re an aggressive buyer and not really seeing lower support at 2370 come in at this point. Support at 2375 and resistance at 2400.50. A breakout to 2417 is inevitable given breakouts on NQ. Cycles look positive on Thursday and Friday so a breakout could easily happen. It seems that we have more cycle lows dominating early next week so profit-taking may set in but market likely to hold up the first 3 weeks of May so we may have to get more expansive with our thinking.
OVERALL: Our new computer models are suggesting 2550 and that had been a target for 2018 but given the greed expansion, we should be patient with thinking this market will crash and burn. We have not seen it this year. Maybe 15% from June to October but a seasonal fall usually happens after mid-June. NQ has clearly needed new highs to 5670 and is stronger for a May high.
LONGER TERM: (4/26) Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5200–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2150 is the most likely first downward target into September/October if the market can close below 2300. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday/Friday.
(Note: cycles for the US and world are complicated and tense into April 26 and could override normal stock market cycles.)
