FOR MONDAY: (11/21) We’re moving into holiday trade and each day get worse with lower volume and sometimes exaggerated moves. It looks like metals do short-covering this week and the S & P pulls back to at least 2148-50 but T-notes seem lower all week and the dollar may take a break also.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Dec e-mini S & P longs from 2181.25 with a 2175.25 stop. Take partial profits on multiples at 2186.00.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (11/21) We’re open to secondary highs toward at least 2186 and still could see 2190 or 2193. Market is tiring and Mondays are often sluggish and then we’re entering a holiday week. We do see a pullback next week but market still in transition for Sunday/Monday. Pullbacks may just go to at least 2148-50 and if there is some bizarre news, 2100 would be a rather rich pullback. New highs to 2220 coming thereafter with cycle highs into Dec. 1st and Christmas. Some cycles suggest a lot of tensions in the world in December and not sure if stocks will be upset by it. Dollar closer to key resistance but need some major event to change the trend there. Key support at 2170.
OVERALL: Cash is also tiring but did have a minor breakout with upper resistance toward 2191 and extensions on cash are up to 2216. We will easily see 2190.50 on futures. Still, cash projects a chance of breaking out to 2216 eventually and futures to 2220 and we see no cyclical shift on Friday on Sunday. We have a bias toward a pullback into Wednesday from Monday but it doesn’t have to be dramatic–and if it’s not, we could hold up into Dec. 1st.
