FOR TUESDAY: Sucker-punch Monday and suddenly everything is wonderful! May last another day but something bizarre will happen late in the week and into the long weekend. War and terrorism cycles are strong and it is something we do not want to predict but it’s edgy out there. Stocks will get spooked again quickly probably after early Wednesday.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (3/27) We had suggested more partial profits in our morning update at 2610, and realistically no one was around when the trade officially stopped out. Market looks like it will hold 2654 overnight and reach up to 2684, and that would be the last place that a 3/3/5 bearish pattern could stop. We had seen a supportive cycle into Tuesday, and it has happened, and China tariffs seem like old news.
We’re not letting go our out bearish interpretation but much above 2700 and there’s larger pattern happening but it’s not favored due to weak cycles into mid-April. We’re concerned about terrorist and war cycles over the next few weeks, and they should upset the market–and there are plenty of issues still percolating with Russia.
OVERALL: Lower weekly chart support is down to 2284 if 2400 gives out. I suspect we just have to stay short until Tax Day or some major intervention. We have to see how low the market falls into mid-April and then we can decide if the seasonal highs into May and early June have a chance to make new highs.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Sharply lower bouncing Tuesday and part of Wednesday; lower into Thursday; closed Friday; lower into April 2-3.
