FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/29) Will North Korea’s latest missile test upset the bull? Sometimes for 1-2 days but usually not more. The peak of a speculative bubble cycle is due by Sunday and that may mean that stocks and Bitcoin finally take a rest after that and bank profits before Christmas. Upper targets for stocks that we thought might take until 2018 are close at 2640 now on the S & P. We still see a June 2018 cycle high for stocks so it is not over. Congress does need to agree on a budget ceiling extensions with that key date into Dec. 8. Any major rambling and rumblings and the market might get upset but the thought is that they will come up with a stop-gap remedy. We should start to congest early week gains for now.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/29) With the tax bill out of committee the computer Algos are a bit wild. Resistance at 2628.50 overnight with pullbacks probably holding 2620-1. Five waves up projects 2636 with key resistance at 2640. The daily chart projection is jumped to 2674 but we’re skeptical, although a bubble cycle peaks into Sunday. The completion up to 2620 and beyond was a bit surprising early in the week although we had thought it would come by Friday. NQ was not as strong and that is key as it often shows leadership. We do think this market is at pattern completion where it can starting coming off. Upper resistance to 2640 has been a weekly target this year but we have higher prices into Friday. We might have jumped on new longs had we thought the market would be so stronger today. We still have a speculative cycle peaking into Friday/Sunday so greed can continue and NQ didn’t get anywhere near upper numbers and may catch up by later in the week.
OVERALL: We’re seeing at least a 110-point fall from wherever the market stops. Lower target is possible to 2400-2385. It does look like a Christmas recovery will happen the week of Dec. 11-15 and possibly into the Dec. 22. There is not much time to fall but the week of Dec. 4-8 is very possible. It has been suicidal to top pick this market and it is not due for a final top until June 2018.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping/lower into Thursday; higher Friday.
