FOR THURSDAY: (8/31) The big question is whether pre-holiday position squaring and month-end fund profit-taking and contract rollover will overwhelm upper pattern completion, which might take until Monday/Tuesday to complete. ADP showed a gain of 276,000 private sector jobs. Is the trade assuming a strong number for employment for Friday, and GDP was the best in 3 years. We hate the buildup before 3-day weekends. Won’t take much to push SP into a buy signal and NQ has already gone there.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (8/31) The S & P stalled at the key area it needed to at 2460. Much above 2465 and something else is happening and we won’t get 5 waves down to 2405. NQ blew past its 3-wave retracement at 5908, and that means that if acceleration happens it would project 6003 and pull the S & P higher. Wednesday was the best day for a decline and it didn’t happen, and that means that we can’t get too bearish right away but sometimes you have to sell key numbers. Lately Europe and Asia have pulled the S & P higher overnight so we’ll see where we are in the morning.
OVERALL: We’re still open to 2405 by Labor Day. Not sure the hurricane will be good for the economy and that may set a messy tone the week. If we really want a serious buy, we need to wait for 2405 and as late as Labor Day.
WEEKLY CHART: There’s still a good possibility that based on patterns that the current fall is a 4th wave to 2400-05 and that a new high to 2500-2520 would be possible in September but a secondary high to 2477 is more likely. In the end we still will have a minimum fall to 2360 or max. 2300-2320 as a fall correction target with a multi-year high due into 2018. Market needs to hold 2400 into Labor Day and shoot out of there to open up that scenario.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering Thursday/Friday.
