FOR MONDAY: (7/10) Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. Beans hit minimum weekly chart target so we have to get some sold. Cycles look lower into Monday but then volatile on Tuesday and probably a recovery. Concerned about a wash-out and wheat had issued a sell signal already earlier in the week. Have to get some positions on market on open in case we have a waterfall day.Continue reading
Seeing higher bonds, lower gold Friday
(7/7) Employment report is always one of the more volatile events of the month and the surprise may be higher than expected based on positive dollar cycles and yet stocks look lower. Seeing higher bonds and lower gold on Friday.Continue reading
Use strength to get into Nov. bean puts, Dec. corn puts
FOR FRIDAY: (7/7) Wheat has been leading the market higher and hit a sell signal yesterday and the trade continued liquidation today. Wheat has pulled the corn and beans up and we have to wonder if it will now pull the grains lower and it is a big yellow flag. Beans didn’t allow us to get filled but we still feel better buying beans. You may want to lighten up on some of your corn if you are nervous and we suggest being out of ½ of longs by the close of Friday. Continue to use strength to get into Nov. bean puts and Dec. corn puts.Continue reading
Stocks cycles look lower
FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) Trade waiting on the employment report on Friday. Cycles for stocks look lower and higher for the dollar and higher for T-notes and lower for gold. We need to position ourselves if we are going to take a stand into the report.Continue reading
Still seeing higher grain prices into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) The weekly crop condition report suggests a dip for corn and higher bean prices and wheat is on fire—literally. We hate weather markets but can see buying corn if we can buy near 400 and doubt we’ll get a retest of 980 to buy beans but will try. Still seeing higher prices into Friday but then concerned about next week. Feeders in trouble on Thursday and hogs still higher for a few more days.Continue reading
Stocks look higher on Tuesday/Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/5) Post-holiday volatility is always a bit crazy and even if we have idea of what’s going to happen we often have to let the dust settle with surprises. Stocks look higher on Tuesday/Wednesday but then lower into the employment report. Gold may have a 1-day bounce but in trouble the rest of the week and the dollar looks higher into Friday before the G-10 meeting.
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Cattle look higher on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/5) We dread the 4th of July weekend. Weather going in is bullish and some cycles point higher into Friday but usually if you get something on by July 4th you do well in the long run. Buy Dec. 400 puts or Nov. 950 puts may be one way to play it and withstand the craziness. Cattle look higher on Wednesday and hogs also higher into Friday so not sure there’s any point in getting too bearish anything. Markets don’t reopen until Wednesday at 8:30 am and that’s when our next report will be.Continue reading
Sell and hedge before July 4th
FOR MONDAY: (07/03) We’ve seen this cycle happen before July 4th where the market gets all excited and then falls apart after the holiday. The fundamentals for North Dakota shouldn’t spill over into beans and corn but the funds like to play this game and are not farmers. The gift is higher prices for bean and corn growers to hedge and sell as there are not problems unless the weather changes going into pollination. In the end, if you sell and hedge before July 4th, you usually come out ok. We luckily took profits on short July grains last Tuesday to get out of the way but got back into new crop too early. We can make a case for one more day up and markets close early on Monday so be sure to check with your broker. Cycles for wheat could be up as late as Friday now and we just do not know when the funds and commercials will separate a problem in North Dakota from the rest of the complex. In any case, this rally is a gift given very good corn and bean crops coming.
GDP will highlight action on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (6/29) GDP will highlight action on Thursday but then we’re winding down into a window where people will disappear going into a long holiday weekend even if July 4th is next Tuesday. Some financial markets close early on Thursday so check with your broker.Continue reading
Trade waiting on USDA reports
FOR THURSDAY: (6/29) Trade waiting on the USDA report and end of the month fund position squaring. Weather looks good going into the weekend and the 4th of July unless rain disappoints. Weather may warm up in July so not sure how much more we can hold shorts past July 5, as we could get a rally before pollination for corn which is due the July 2-3. Trade already gearing up for the holiday weekend.Continue reading