FOR MONDAY: (07/03) We’ve seen this cycle happen before July 4th where the market gets all excited and then falls apart after the holiday. The fundamentals for North Dakota shouldn’t spill over into beans and corn but the funds like to play this game and are not farmers. The gift is higher prices for bean and corn growers to hedge and sell as there are not problems unless the weather changes going into pollination. In the end, if you sell and hedge before July 4th, you usually come out ok. We luckily took profits on short July grains last Tuesday to get out of the way but got back into new crop too early. We can make a case for one more day up and markets close early on Monday so be sure to check with your broker. Cycles for wheat could be up as late as Friday now and we just do not know when the funds and commercials will separate a problem in North Dakota from the rest of the complex. In any case, this rally is a gift given very good corn and bean crops coming.
GDP will highlight action on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (6/29) GDP will highlight action on Thursday but then we’re winding down into a window where people will disappear going into a long holiday weekend even if July 4th is next Tuesday. Some financial markets close early on Thursday so check with your broker.Continue reading
Trade waiting on USDA reports
FOR THURSDAY: (6/29) Trade waiting on the USDA report and end of the month fund position squaring. Weather looks good going into the weekend and the 4th of July unless rain disappoints. Weather may warm up in July so not sure how much more we can hold shorts past July 5, as we could get a rally before pollination for corn which is due the July 2-3. Trade already gearing up for the holiday weekend.Continue reading
Stocks should come back to life
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/28) Cycles are very volatile the next few days and could produce V-top and bottom reversals with strong movement and you can get a glimpse of how energized the markets were from Tuesday and hit will continue a few more days so be careful. We do think that the markets will retrace Tuesday’s movements so stocks should come back to life and probably in a big way. Dollar is due for a bounce and gold and silver look lower a few days now and probably into Sunday.Continue reading
Grains lower into Sunday, cattle in trouble
FOR WEDNESDAY : (6/28) We’re going to start selling more Dec. corn and Nov. beans as a fall into Sunday night seems pretty clear and the bounce may have worked out oversold conditions. Cattle are in trouble and can be sold and also hogs. Cycles are very volatile so watch markets carefully the next few days. Grains close an hour early on Monday before the holiday and don’t reopen until July 5 at 8:30 am so we don’t have to deal with night session during fireworks on July 4th.Continue reading
Stocks may open lower
FOR TUESDAY: (6/27) Stocks may open lower based on NQ patterns and projections but still look like they will come back into Thursday. Gold and silver completed key patterns earlier than we expected but may retest them and those markets aren’t done until later in July. Dollar could come still off another day.Continue reading
Can wheat continue to lift corn, beans?
FOR TUESDAY : (6/27) Not sure if wheat will pull the rest of the complex up but we would like to see lower grains before taking more profits off. We have to roll out of July soon and into Nov. beans and Dec. corn anyways and will pull some profits off so we can rollover.Continue reading
Lows for the dollar this week
(6/26) At publication on Saturday, there doesn’t seem to be enough earth-shattering movement to take stocks sharply lower and some positive cycles for stocks kick in the next few weeks, which means that business is happening as usual. There’s a cycle for stocks that usually creates aggressive buy-out bids or takeovers so we wonder if something bigger than Amazon/Whole Foods will happen this week. Meanwhile, approaching summer doldrums and seeing lows for the dollar this week and a recovery next week and oil still in trouble for a few more days.Continue reading
Cattle oversold
FOR MONDAY: (6/26) Would expect a climax in lower prices for grains by Sunday night/Monday and then some short-covering into the report or at least a bounce into Wednesday. Time to take partial profits but just not looking good for a positive report on Friday or into a July 3 cycle. Cattle on Feed report wasn’t great but market is rather overdone so maybe the upper pattern bounce will come in from oversold conditions.Continue reading
Volatile cycle may be felt more on Sunday
FOR FRIDAY: (6/23) Thinking that summer doldrums are hitting and that the market may crawl into the weekend. There is a volatile cycle but it may be felt more on Sunday. For now, markets are tiring but still some room for movement for lower gold and silver and a few other markets.Continue reading