FOR THURSDAY: (7/13) Energy is still expansive for stocks and bad news out of Washington doesn’t seem to rattle the market, as greed knows no bounds. Still room to buy T-notes and sell metals with next key target into July 18. We still would like to see lower pattern come in on the dollar to 9510 but it doesn’t have to.Continue reading
Thursdays are usually not kind to grains
FOR THURSDAY: (7/13) USDA days can be major changes of trend on the month. There is a conflict between hot and dry setting up into pollination and almost failing tecnnicals. Beans didn’t fail enough yet. I think this was the shake-out move and one divergent high can come but hard to hold grains this late in the season and not get killed. Use strength to stay protected with put options and futures may come through. Thursdays are not kind to grains usually and cycles are mixed into Friday. Running out of time.Continue reading
Trade waiting on Yellen testimony
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/12) Trade waiting on Yellen testimony on Wednesday but not expecting much shocking news. Stocks look higher and metals lower and oil lower and dollar lower a few days in congestive downward action. The next key point for financials appears to be into July 18 for a dollar high and metals low and T-note high.Continue reading
Volatile corrections ahead for grains?
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/12) The later we get each day into July, the more the market seems vulnerable. USDA report days are often turning points for the month. While we can see the market holding up as late as Friday, we could get volatile corrections here which would be 4th-wave before final highs. We foresee a cluster of turning points into Sunday/Monday, which means that even if the hot weather is there, the trade may start selling the fact. Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. We watch patterns to keep us out of trouble and corn needs at least one more high to 424-7 on Dec. and beans to 1092-6. Wheat might get dragged to 590-600 and has the worst fundamentals. Cattle not happy with higher feed prices for now.Continue reading
Stocks look higher; dollar, metals, oil lower lower
FOR TUESDAY: (7/11) Trade waiting on Yellen testimony on Wednesday but not expecting much shocking news. Stocks look higher and metals lower and oil lower and dollar lower a few days in congestive downward action.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (7/11)The most likely movement up this week is toward at least 2440 if not 2450 in the more bullish case. S & P couldn’t get through 2430 and will probably hold 2420 overnight. Market may be higher overnight and sideway on Tuesday. Still we have a bias toward higher and slosh prices.
WEEKLY CHART: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming/recovering Tuesday; sideways to lower Wednesday; higher Thursday; sideways Friday.
Corn needs at least one more high to 424-425
FOR TUESDAY: (7/11) Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. We watch patterns to keep us out of trouble and corn needs at least one more high to 424-5 on Dec. and beans to 1092-6. Wheat might get dragged to 590-600 and has the worst fundamentals. Cattle not happy with higher feed prices for now.Continue reading
Sunday could be explosive with a key cycles hitting
FOR MONDAY: (7/10) Could be an explosive Sunday with a key cycles hitting. Could trigger earthquake activity or just fall-out from G-20 as not sure Trump will hold his tongue well with Merkel and others by the time the weekend is over. Still, stock market setting up another sucker punch to the upside but maybe not too much.Continue reading
Cycles look lower into Monday
FOR MONDAY: (7/10) Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. Beans hit minimum weekly chart target so we have to get some sold. Cycles look lower into Monday but then volatile on Tuesday and probably a recovery. Concerned about a wash-out and wheat had issued a sell signal already earlier in the week. Have to get some positions on market on open in case we have a waterfall day.Continue reading
Seeing higher bonds, lower gold Friday
(7/7) Employment report is always one of the more volatile events of the month and the surprise may be higher than expected based on positive dollar cycles and yet stocks look lower. Seeing higher bonds and lower gold on Friday.Continue reading
Use strength to get into Nov. bean puts, Dec. corn puts
FOR FRIDAY: (7/7) Wheat has been leading the market higher and hit a sell signal yesterday and the trade continued liquidation today. Wheat has pulled the corn and beans up and we have to wonder if it will now pull the grains lower and it is a big yellow flag. Beans didn’t allow us to get filled but we still feel better buying beans. You may want to lighten up on some of your corn if you are nervous and we suggest being out of ½ of longs by the close of Friday. Continue to use strength to get into Nov. bean puts and Dec. corn puts.Continue reading