Expecting bearish reaction to Outlook report

(2/23) Our sources say that the Ag Outlook report will be released at 8 am EST but may not be posted completely to their website until 3 pm EST. Over the years, the market has usually reacted to this report early in the morning. We haven’t taken a heavy position with anything, as this report can be like the quarterly reports and can create huge moves. Farm Futures expects corn acreage at 90.49 million vs 2016’s 94 million; soybeans at 90.52 million vs 83.4 million and wheat at 45.68 million vs 50.2 million. Based on cycles, we expect a bearish reaction but the impact may be more on new crop which we are not even covering yet. We’re getting close to end of the month seasonal lows and we should be out of short March grains by early Monday and will roll to the May and July contracts. Hogs broke hard but are close to a key cycle low and cattle look lower on Thursday.Continue reading

Volatile cycles next few days

(2/22) FOMC minutes is the big report on Wednesday and not sure the market cares too much about it or a hawkish bent. Cycles are a bit more volatile the next few days so we’ll have to see what manifests; the weekend congestion should be over and followed by new movement.Continue reading

No risk/reward for selling grains without a bounce

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/22) Usually we can count on hog bounces on Wednesday and if they are weak, we’re probably ok selling. Cattle look lower a few days. We have had a bias for lower grains into Wednesday/Thursday and not sure the USDA outlook report will mean that much, although we should consider it as important as a quarterly report. No risk/reward for selling grains without a bounce. Cycles look rather weak here.Continue reading

S & P projects 2354 on futures

(2/21) Not much to add to our Friday night update. Most patterns are on schedule. We hate three-day weekends because by Tuesday morning, whatever has happened over the weekend usually gets faded and you have to be ready to take profits and go the other way. We’re clear enough about larger patterns and trends to stay out of trouble.Continue reading

Lower cattle prices on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (2/21 no change) Three-day weekends are tricky to trade. Grains are oversold and if they crash Monday night on bearish weather, they will have to bounce on Tuesday. Hogs look higher for a few days and have to wait for the dust to settle on cattle but seeing lower prices on Tuesday and willing to sell a key pattern completion on the feeders.Continue reading

Most patterns on schedule

(2/19-20) With Europe and Asia open, market could still be pretty active by the Monday open. Most patterns are on schedule. We hate three-day weekends because by Tuesday morning, whatever has happened over the weekend usually gets faded and you have to be ready to take profits and go the other way. We’re clear enough about larger patterns and trends to stay out of trouble.Continue reading

Willing to sell key pattern completion on feeders

FOR TUESDAY: (2/20-21) Three-day weekends are tricky to trade. Grains are oversold and if they crash Monday night on bearish weather, they will have to bounce on Tuesday. Hogs look higher for a few days and have to wait for the dust to settle on cattle but seeing lower prices on Tuesday and willing to sell a key pattern completion on the feeders.Continue reading