Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (6/1) Usually meats and grains are lower on Thursdays but not clear on grains this week. First-the-month fund buying may lift some oversold conditions for bargain hunters. Hogs aren’t done enough to sell and cattle are too strong to sell.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/31) Corn opened sharply higher as the ping-pong match continues between 376 and 366. Markets were overdone on Tuesday and a bounce here is healthy. Downward patterns weren’t quite completed for wheat and beans so we’re open for another thrust lower. Cattle liked news out of China but still may be in trouble overall and look lower on Thursday. Markets moving toward position squaring for the end of the month by funds and that often distorts everything so continue to bank profits and move stops lower.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/30) Will the trade focus on the wetter Eastern corn belt which pushed the market up last week or the drier and warmer weather by the end of the week? I suspect that Friday’s rallies will be given back early in the week into May 31 but it does seem that prices may go higher into mid-June based on wetter and cooler weather in the East. Cattle on Feed report came out early during trading hours because of the holiday and left us all with no risk/reward if we left early for the holiday. Still may be able to get something on. Few more higher days for hogs we think.

JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean shorts from 957 with a 945.50 stop. Exit more partials at 906.00.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/30) We do see lower prices the next few days into the end of the month. We took more partial profits at 933.50. Support is at 922.75 and 905. The solid break below 930 opens the door for eventually seeing 897-905. Rallies may have trouble taking out 935.50 now. We had suggested partial profit at 945 and that came in and the break below 938 easily project 933.
OVERALL: Daily chart suggesting 895 and if acreage increases, it’s possible.
NEAR TERM: (5/12) Five waves down projects 895 or 904. Cycle lows could continue into May 31. We should get a recovery into June 12 and June 16 and the lower into the June 30 USDA reports.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: May 29-31 low.

FOR FRIDAY: (5/26) Fridays before long weekends can be rather sideways. We have to wait for Monday’s weather to get any new surprises out of the market and while we have weekend rain, not sure the market cares that much more given that it only could push corn up to 375 earlier in the week.

JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/26) Not much action here. Wanting to take profits at 422.75 on partials but wondering if we’ll have to wait until Monday night or Tuesday to get it. First support at 422 and then 416.50.
FUNDAMENTALS: (5/25) The lower crude oil, technical factors and possible corn acres being switched to soybeans may have been selling factors. Soybean planting has gone well so far, with 53% done as of Sunday, 1% better than both the five-year average. Planting was ahead of the state average in Iowa, but behind in Illinois and Indiana
OVERALL: Seasonal pressure is always on winter wheat into late May and it can sometimes extend into mid-June. Three waves down on the weekly continuation chart project 3.99 and the USDA has given 3.85 as the lower end for where prices may go and they figure the market will not get above 465. Hard for us to see wheat getting above 438-440 again and given the downside potential to 399 or 385 on July wheat, we have to continue to sell rallies. First place July wheat will fall is 418 and then 410-2.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into May 26; May 29-31 low.

FOR THURSDAY: (5/25) We had a bias toward higher grains on Thursday and they usually are not higher this day. Cattle in transition and have to leave it alone and if you want to gamble on a weak reaction to the report for Friday, get in on Friday. Hogs not done until 8290-8300 comes in.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/24) We usually don’t want to be short grains on Wednesday so watch carefully and take partial profits and move stops down. We could see short-covering on Thursday before the long weekend but market looks lower after the holiday. Corn and soybean futures closed lower as USDA data late yesterday showed farmers successfully dodged most of last week’s rain showers to stay current on spring planting. Wheat futures slipped as USDA data also showed some improvement in the winter wheat crop and good planting progress for spring wheat.

JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/24) Break to 428 means we’re on the right side of this market. First support at 422 and then 416.50. Market may bounce on Thursday but I think we can be short into the weekend. While the weather remains troublesome for winter wheat, with more rain forecast later this week for the Plains, USDA said the crop improved 1 point to 52% good/excellent last week, contrary to forecasts for a small slippage in ratings. However, Illinois wheat lost ground with USDA rating it 44% good/excellent compared with 52% the prior week.
OVERALL: Seasonal pressure is always on winter wheat into late May and it can sometimes extend into mid-June. Three waves down on the weekly continuation chart project 3.99 and the USDA has given 3.85 as the lower end for where prices may go and they figure the market will not get above 465. Hard for us to see wheat getting above 438-440 again and given the downside potential to 399 or 385 on July wheat, we have to continue to sell rallies. First place July wheat will fall is 418 and then 410-2.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into May 24; higher into May 26; May 29-31 low.

FOR TUESDAY: (5/23) Bean plantings were below expectations for 56% but still average for this time of year. The 29/30 day cycles are lower on Tuesday and are inclined to expect lower prices for a few days now. Need to see wheat break; otherwise we would be concerned. The cycle into Thursday is often rather bearish for many markets and we would rather be short cattle and grains.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (5/22) Corn futures closed higher for the day and for the fourth straight week as rain and cold weather may impede the last of this year’s planting and possibly cause some fields to be replanted. Soybeans finished higher for the day but lower for the week. Investors are watching action in Brasilia, Brazil’s capitol, where President Michel Temer is being investigated for bribery. The Real on Friday recovered about half of what it lost yesterday when the allegations were first reported. Wheat had big daily gains with hard red winter wheat recovering nearly all that it lost earlier this week. Severe storms and flash flooding are expected in the plains today and in the Midwest tomorrow, where winter wheat needs dry conditions.

We can see grains higher on Monday if they react to the weather but that may be higher for the week so if you’re short, you have watch stops.

FOR FRIDAY: (5/19) Cycle lows for grains dominate the next few days and not sure the market can turn up until after May 25. We would continue to favor shorts until then. Short-covering on cattle may continue one more day but the market will probably stay under pressure through next week, and overall seasonals are lower into June.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/16) We have mixed cycles for grains the next few days and a low-confidence forecast. We have to take profits on short wheat with cold weather moving into Colorado and that may spook the market. It also may cause short-covering on cattle but may not be drastic enough to impact anything further East. Still have to continue to sell rallies in grains.Continue reading