FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/29) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Unclear whether it will happen. Rallies were not very strong or meaningful on Tuesday. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.Continue reading
Short-covering into USDA report
FOR TUESDAY: (3/28) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/28) We are out of short corn. We see short-covering this week and it continues into next week and in case it turns into something bigger, we’ll have a light long position in place. Key support at 350 and 343 next if bounces are week and we break down later in April.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry prices in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into March 30-31.
Still not willing to bottom-pick
FOR MONDAY: (3/27) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend and look to take more profits and tighten stops. Not willing to bottom-pick and not sure how much of a bounce we will really get next week to make it worthwhile. We do see higher prices after USDA so it will be important to look for a ledge to buy next week for the more bullish grain contracts. Meats look generally lower at least until Tuesday.Continue reading
Wheat still has a long way to fall
FOR THURSDAY: (3/23) Cattle should pause after rallying parabolicly and fall $2-3 dollar off of opening highs. Wheat still has a long way to fall and beans need to catch up. Cold storage was bearish and we fell better selling looking for lower prices into next week.Continue reading
Waiting a hog rebound to sell
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/22) Grain cycles are still weak into Friday but beans are not collapsing like wheat. Cattle are also holding up better than expected but should start unraveling at Thursday the latest. Waiting a day for a hog rebound to sell by Thursday.Continue reading
Hogs still too iffy to sell
FOR TUESDAY: (3/21) While we were in early, our bearish orientation on the week is finally showing its colors and we feel good being short all week. Cattle continues to show signs of failing and we can jump into shorts and see how far they fall into Friday. Hogs are still too iffy to sell but should be lower.Continue reading
Bearish cycle for meats and grains
FOR MONDAY: (3/20) There’s a bearish cycle for meats and grains from Monday into March 25. The issue will be how much more they go up Sunday/Monday before turning. Will feel better selling more of a confirmed reversal rather than top-picking but the end of this run seems near.Continue reading
Cattle still very strong
FOR FRIDAY: (3/17) Cattle still very strong at least one more session so no hedges or sales can wait until Monday. Grains have had relatively weak bounces and we expect them to turn lower next week.Continue reading
Ready to sell more grains
FOR THURSDAY: (3/16) We are ready to sell more grains if we get another push up over the next few days and also cattle if we can get in higher and use strength to continue hedging cattle the next few days.Continue reading
Cattle and hog cycles very weak
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/15) We would sell any minor bounces in grains the next day as we see pressure into March 26-27. Cattle and hog cycles are very weak and bearish also starting March 20-30 and we’ll have to load up on shorts on hedges on bounces. May be too late without a bounce there.Continue reading