Category: Ag Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (3/14) Tuesday seems the best day for a bounce in grains and if it happens, we need to be selling. Still thinking the major cycle low for grains is March 26-27 but wondering if they are too oversold now. Still can get away with shorts this week. Cattle and hogs should be higher with winter snows. Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/13) Winter storms over the weekend may excite trade a bit but always hard to play these things. Grains have issued sell signals with projections into March 26-27 and we’ll use any strength to get short but may have a better chance on Tuesday. Cattle look higher at least a few more days and hogs are very choppy and have to play the ranges.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (3/10) There are a few energetic cycles that are rather speculative for expansion and maybe returning winter weather or drier Plains may excite some buying for 2-3 days. Corn finished a pattern to the downside but not beans and wheat failed. Cattle look bid on colder weather.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (3/9) Grains were disappointing with continued profit-taking before the USDA on Thursday. If cattle complete downward patterns, we’re open to buying and hogs look weaker into early next week.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) The 29-day cycle is higher on Wednesday and some grains look higher on Thursday although beans are more iffy for Thursday’s report. Meats didn’t break hard enough on Tuesday and we’ll need to exit.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (3/7) Cycles are bit mixed but the Goldman roll out of April meats should pressure them lower for at least one more day. Grains also look lower one more day but we do want to buy dips if we get them.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/6) Grains still look lower a few more sessions so we’ll be patient about chasing these markets. We do see a recovery higher on grains Wednesday and Thursday but wonder if the market will be skittish before Thursday’s USDA report. We’re going to need to exit short cattle to be on the safe side although cycles are volatile and lower patterns haven’t come in. Cycles are very volatile the next few days and it will be safer to wait for things to settle down before establishing new positions.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: Cycles are complicated going into next week and we still have to run more data. End- of-week position squaring always a problem but cattle still look lower one more day and grains look mixed.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/3) We’ll be patient about buying more corn for another day unless our buy comes in at 376.50. Key support at 384 has held so far. The pattern is rather unclear and there is no real place to put stop other than below 374.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Friday.

FOR THURSDAY: (3/2) Thinking grains will back off on Thursday but hold up on Friday. Cattle look lower for a few days and any deep pullbacks will lead to a breakdown. Hogs should complete a 3-wave rally into Thursday/Friday and set up a sale for next week.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/1) The corn market got very excited about Ethanol and its possibilities in the speech tonight and we had the most exaggerated move we have had in a long time that finally settled down to reality. Still, we are at a buy point in terms of timing and seasonals but cycles are rather complicated and volatility should increase the next few days. Meats are harder to chase now but still possible and some cattle cycles are higher into Friday.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/1) We bought 1 July corn on Tuesday night. Market could retest the 375.00 area but doubt that we will see more downside. Not sure anyone survived Tuesday’s action. In the end we like higher prices and seasonals the first weeks of March.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Wednesday; lower Thursday; higher Friday.