Wheat minimum numbers in

FOR MONDAY: (9/17) Minimum numbers for wheat came in and that may block corn from hitting the more ideal 346-7 area for now but possible with harvest pressure. Beans can’t be bought as a countertrend play unless we see 811-13, and that would take some major bad news out of China combined with harvest pressure.Continue reading

Cycles suggest short-covering for grains on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Not sure we learned much on Thursday. With weekend harvest pressure, it may be too much to expect a short-covering bounce or a rally on Monday but it’s still early in the harvest season so maybe not too much pressure. Cycles suggest short-covering on Friday and higher prices on Monday. The wild card going into the weekend is Hurricane Florence. The spin and hype around these hurricanes often is worse than the actuality but we’ve seen rather dire things happen. Hurricane Florence is expected to influence crop production along the Atlantic coast, especially in North Carolina. The damage and recovery time to get back to normal will be a concern for traders as the balance of the week unfolds. Hard to say how many acres are influenced or how much permanent damage there will be but we are not dealing with the I- states in the Midwest, so in the end it won’t mean much for grains. We do see grains recovering on Monday into early next week, and ideally patterns to the downside would be done at 347 on Dec. corn and 811-813 on Nov. beans at 494-7 on Dec. wheat so that a natural rally would be due anyway.Continue reading

Probably can’t press grain shorts

FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Wondering when the trade will start worrying about crop loss in South. May be soon. Probably can’t press grain shorts until we get an overreaction to the upside now and grains are very oversold. Hogs finally getting a reality check that we could be repeating 1999 again.Continue reading

Stocks still looking bearish

FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Wondering if 9/11 Memorial will spook anyone on Tuesday. Most markets were quiet and not telling us much, as Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane Florence and potential damage is a concern, and China rhetoric and planning continues to ratchet up–and it’s not a good idea to corner a Panda when her cubs are threatened. Not going to end well.Continue reading

Next corn sale may be Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Trade waiting on Wednesday’s USDA report and many think that corn will miss estimates, and that’s probably the case. Still, upside potential is limited. Hogs should be impacted by the Hurricane, as the Carolinas are huge hog producers. Still, the market came off a 1.20 from the highs.Continue reading

Need a pullback into Tuesday to buy cattle

FOR MONDAY: (9/10) Logic has us thinking cool and wet weather over the weekend will spook grain traders higher although many normal cycles would be lower on Sunday/Monday. We are going with logic and we got long wheat and are open to chasing beans more than corn. Need a pullback into Tuesday to buy cattle. Canadian deal will not be done until later in the month and higher Chinese tariffs may be the wild card and straw that breaks.Continue reading

Not much upside potential for corn

FOR FRIDAY: (8/31) Not wanting to have much on before the long weekend. Grains are oversold and if lower targets come in, then a short-covering rally buy may set up before the USDA report the first few weeks of September. Also have to deal with Canadian stats out on Friday and also any surprises from Canadian negotiations around NAFTA.Continue reading

Beans still too treacherous to buy

FOR THURSDAY: (8/30) Not wanting to have much on before the long weekend so exit meats and continue to take profits on higher pushes on wheat. Unlikely to put much on before the long weekend. Grains are oversold and if lower targets come in, then a short-covering rally buy may set up before the USDA report the first few weeks of September. Also have to deal with Canadian stats out on Friday and also any surprises from Canadian negotiations around NAFTA.Continue reading