Erratic grains difficult to play

FOR TUESDAY: (7/10) Grains are erratic and difficult to play for specs but if we get bounces, we have to hedge. Cattle should recover now also and hogs need another new low before it may be safe to buy.Continue reading

Cycles suggest higher grain prices into Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (7/9) Lately, weekends have yielded more severe China saber-rattling so that is the problem but cycles suggest higher prices into Tuesday and we can buy pullbacks for a few days on grains for scalpers and bulls but would use rallies to hedge. Seasonally, if we get recoveries into the 2nd week of July, the trade often comes off.Continue reading

Likely cycle highs into July 10

FOR FRIDAY: (7/6) We have had a bias in cycles toward cycle highs into July 10 but the days after July 4th are always precarious, and cycles are particularly volatile. Weather forecast are warmer and drier but there appears to be enough soil moisture for a few week to prevent major damage. The verdict will still be out on beans with later pollination. With no overnight action to go on we won’t have a clear reaction for over a ½ hour. Given everything, we slight new lows in grains should be bought for buy the fact reaction to China and weather and cycles into Tuesday. Meat grinder action will have us waiting for confirmations and the dust to settle.Continue reading

Have to get some Dec. corn hedges on

FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) Grains are doing a dead-cat bounce on Monday night on minor adjustments in crop conditions. The slam dunk on Monday caught us by surprise, as we hadn’t expected such a huge downward movement. We had cancelled long wheat and exited long corn from the Sunday night session market on Monday but failed to hedge. Lack of a perceived weather threat to U.S. crops along with generally bearish data on acreage and grain inventories last week gave traders little incentive to stick their necks out with new long positions headed in to the July 4th holiday. Have to get some Dec. corn hedges on, as we could quickly be at 340.Continue reading

Use rallies to hedge Dec. corn

FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We hate trading around July 4th. Usually you have to sell and hedge corn if it makes highs around there. Beans are too far from pollination. Crop has gotten enough rain that a week of heat shouldn’t be a deal killer, and there appears to be enough rain in the forecast. We would use rallies to hedge Dec. corn and be done by July 9 at the latest. Verdict is out on beans and we have to wait for better prices.Continue reading

Mixed grain cycles ahead

FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into Sunday/Monday, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday. Minor cycles are weak but the larger cycles are supportive and may allow a recovery if we get any movement lower on bearish numbers. Usually hard to survive the meat grinder here. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas. Hogs and Pigs report was bearish but maybe only one-limit down move and it then will bounce next week.Continue reading

Favoring long grains into July 10

FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into July 10, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday and won’t position ourselves. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas.Continue reading

Nothing bullish in the forecasts

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/27) Nothing bullish in the forecasts. We think grains will short-cover before the USDA but will be hard to hold anything into the weekend. We have a bias for higher prices next week but the seasonal odds are usually against us. Cattle continues to look weak but as pre-holiday conditions thin, anything can happen.Continue reading

Not seeing a huge downside potential for corn

FOR TUESDAY: (6/26) Grains look lower 1 more day followed by short covering into Friday. New research on cattle suggests lower into Wednesday if not into early next week. Grains do look higher the first week of July overall so the worst may be over if the market can do secondary lows this week and offer a light hedge buy in case of pollination. Cattle on Feed was neutral to bearish and now the market could be lower into Wednesday. Hogs are oversold and may have a chance to rally with a 5-wave pattern just about complete.Continue reading