Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (3/24) No Health Care vote until at least Monday will at least save our weekend and anxiety levels but stocks may complete downward patterns anyway and the latest version of the bill has gotten worse and taken out some of the bill’s good previsions. The existential dilemma is that these events create horrible congestion and then an untradeable release of energy when something happens. Knowing Washington and the cycles into Monday/Tuesday, hard to imagine a positive outcome and a positive release of upward energy for stocks. This is not a huge event really but somehow it feels like another Brexit does the media just have us hooked with their stories.Continue reading

(3/23) Not sure when a final vote will come in on Health Care but these things tend to drag out and thinking the market may sell first and ask questions later. NQ has already had a sucker punch bounce which makes me think that those late to the party may be disappointed. We’re going to be patient and have watched the cavalry ride the rescue much too often.Continue reading

(3/22) We’ve seen too many bear traps to chase shorts. NQ looks like it would be done at 5309 and SP at 2332-34, and those were old targets that we just gave up. Only seasonal weakness has us thinking something bigger could happen but news isn’t really there although overbought conditions are. Dollar looks a bit lower overnight and gold a bit higher. Lots of markets are unraveling but we’re not going to panic. Sometimes the knee-jerk reaction at overdone situations is the worst thing to do.Continue reading

(3/21) Not a lot of news this week and Fedspeak may dominate headlines with Yellen on Thursday but what can she really say after raising rates? Cycles still suggest a recovering dollar and lower metals this week and we’re working on getting set up for that scenario but are patient for patterns and key numbers to complete.Continue reading

(3/20) We looked at cycles for Sunday and they seem more negative than positive overall if people want to be selling. That might mean weaker dollars and higher metals and lower stocks from what we could tell. Cycles turn more positive after 9 am on Monday so whatever negative impact comes, it could be retraced on Monday. We have had a bias toward lower metals and higher dollars much of next week but Sunday/Monday is still a transition time. With no major reports if G-20 or Korea don’t spur any movement, then it could also be a typical “dud” day.Continue reading

(3/16) We had been looking for a dollar low into Friday and a metals high and we should get it, and then next week looks sharply higher for dollar and lower for metals and lower for stocks. We’re not clear on T-note patterns and cycles for now and will leave them alone.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/15) No change from this morning. Everything centers around Wednesday with the Dutch election, the FOMC rate hike (no biggie), the debt ceiling expiration and five other reports. Should be interesting. For now we can get positioned in the direction we expect things to go but these markets are always full of surprises. Keeps life interesting.Continue reading

(3/14) Everything centers around Wednesday with the Dutch election, the FOMC rate hike (no biggie), the debt ceiling expiration and five other reports. Should be interesting. For now we can get positioned in the direction we expect things to go but these markets are always full of surprises. Keeps life interesting.Continue reading

(3/13) Not sure the FOMC meeting matters given a 100% chance for rate hike now and 50% even for June. The big elephant in the room remains the Debt Ceiling and I have not seen any rhetoric out of the White House to address it. Cycles turn intense into Tuesday and a number of markets point lower like crude and stocks and the dollar with gold being higher.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (3/10) Another employment report day but somehow this one seems really important even with over a 94% of a March rate hike. If we get a weak number, the trade and expectations building all week will unravel all over the place. We don’t want to be too heavily positioned. The big Elephant in the room is the March 15 borrowing ceiling limit and the reality of it may spook all the markets particularly if Trump takes a fiscally responsible tact, which he has alluded to in the past.Continue reading