FOR FRIDAY: (3/10) Another employment report day but somehow this one seems really important even with over a 94% of a March rate hike. If we get a weak number, the trade and expectations building all week will unravel all over the place. We don’t want to be too heavily positioned. The big Elephant in the room is the March 15 borrowing ceiling limit and the reality of it may spook all the markets particularly if Trump takes a fiscally responsible tact, which he has alluded to in the past.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (3/10) We’re rolling to the June contract, which is trading about 3.00 points below March. We’re still watching S & P futures and cash toward 2350 for a pattern completion and then a recovery of maybe 30 points for “b” wave before the C-wave lower would go to 2321 on cash and about 2320 on futures. With everyone expecting a heavyweight employment number, any miss will seem disappointing. We’re not clear how things will go on Friday. If the pattern completion comes in near 2350, it will set up a buy into the FOMC announcement. We’re not seeing a breakdown.
OVERALL: We should see 2350 before the market is done and does a 30-point bounce, with probably a cycle high for a bounce into March 17. Probably the low is in by Friday, March 10 but could go a few days lower.
NEAR TERM: Enough of a close now that everyone knows the market has topped and we can target 2321 on cash. Seasonally the market is often lower the 2nd half of March. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.
LONGER TERM: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Friday.
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