(3/13) Not sure the FOMC meeting matters given a 100% chance for rate hike now and 50% even for June. The big elephant in the room remains the Debt Ceiling and I have not seen any rhetoric out of the White House to address it. Cycles turn intense into Tuesday and a number of markets point lower like crude and stocks and the dollar with gold being higher.

TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (3/13) At 10:30 am on Friday we noted that the market would hold 2360-61 and recover and that a C-wave higher could go to at least 2382.25. Much above 2385 and we might get more bullish. Given pre-FOMC congestion we probably will be in tight ranges. Market has a better chance to be higher on Monday and Tuesday looks lower.

OVERALL: This week’s low was enough to satisfy that it was a minor 4th-wave pullback and that new highs can come into next week but not a definite. If the market had fallen a bit more in 5 waves we could sell a 3-wave bounce to 2382 and feel clear on where the market is but that isn’t the case. The debt ceiling crisis starting March 15 may be a coming negative. We had thought a secondary high next week so if there is a sharp fall it may start the week of March 20.

NEAR TERM: If the market doesn’t take off this week into March 17– and we’re skeptical — then we do favor 2321 on cash and have to be short in case more manifests. Seasonally the market is often lower the 2nd half of March. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.

LONGER TERM: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Sunday/Monday; lower Tuesday.

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