FOR THURSDAY: (4/13) World political and tension cycles are still strong into Thursday and saber-rattling is escalating with China on the border and the North Korean President having a press conference at 6:20 am to demonstrate something. Who wants to be long dollars in this scenario? We looked at next week and gold continues to look higher and the dollar low and next week cycle lows for crude dominate and stocks should mostly be lower much of the week. We have to assume that the trends will continue and nothing will be resolved over the long holiday weekend.
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX (electronic)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold June dollar shorts from 100.75 with a 100.55 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/13) We got short the dollar near the highs of the day and it dropped dramatically reaching the minimum support target from this morning already of 100.07 in the early night session. Open to lower prices into at least Monday with a target of 9925. Not thinking 100.40 will come out and we can probably move stops to 100.55 now. Should we go back to our original idea of 9770 now?
OVERALL: Patterns are such that the current rally is over and was a 2nd-wave retracement and then the bears will take over for 9823 or 9770 later in April.
NEAR TERM: Cycles are wild and surprises are very possible next week so may be tricky to play. April cycles seem choppy and a secondary low is possible by April 27-28. The market then seems higher in May-July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into April 14; higher into April 17; higher into April 20.
