FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sell the fact of the tax bill or the S & P near 2700. On top of it we’re dealing with people heading for the exits and year-end position squaring. Usually you get a lot of congestion going into the end of the year but sometimes some big moves if unwinding is going to happen. Sometimes we like to position trade but often on Dec. 26 there’s some bizarre move in thin conditions that no stop can handle– and that’s why we’re probably going to do very few short day-trades or 2-day trades the rest of the year based on morning conditions. We have completed Part 1 of our Yearly Forecast issue of Fortucast and it’s available. Working on covering Bitcoin futures but may take a month to really get a handle on it.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) Patterns suggest a 3-wave rally to 2690.75 or 2692 max. Above that and the chance for 2703.50 increases. The market is top heavy and likely to be sold on divergent bounces. We have a bias toward lower prices next week. Probably a slosh day-trade affair on Thursday. S & P would have to close under 2672 to issue a deeper sell-off now in the pattern and the weekly chart turn will require a close below 2740. In fact if we get 2712 by Friday, a 70-point pullback would still hold above 2640 if that were to happen on end of the year profit-taking next week and sell the Tax Bill signing fact.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Friday; lower Dec. 26-29; higher into Jan 5 and 7.
