FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) We have pre-holiday trading in thin conditions and while we understand patterns and cycles, it usually isn’t worth trading choppy action before the Friday employment report. Leave it alone and enjoy the holiday break. We can often get a lot of fake-out moves in these conditions and they seem exaggerated so we have to wait for volume to return.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) The market above 2720 isn’t great for the bears. Resistance overnight at 2730 and 2735, and we can’t rule out a recovery to 2751 this week if the market can’t breakdown quickly. We could easily get stopped out overnight. Thin conditions make this market vulnerable. Cycles look stronger into the close of Tuesday so we’ll probably get out of short in the morning if not stopped. Thursday had looked like the best up day of the week so not sticking around with shorts if we get sideways congestion.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: lower part of Tuesday and short-covering into the closed; holiday trading on Wednesday should be lower; higher Thursday/Friday; lower into July 8-12.
