FOR TUESDAY: (5/2) Trade waiting for FOMC on Wednesday but is already buying the Congressional confirmation of a budgetary settlement until Oct. 1st. There’s still too much going on with North Korea and saber-rattling but cycles for stocks are still positive until the end of the month so “what me worry.” Could see the buy in October and sell in May people taking profits at 2400 on the S & P comes in again.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (5/2) Market held up strongly with NQ leading again, and NQ still has more to go and could lift the S & P to 2395 and eventually we will see 2415-6 later. Lately the trade will buy a dovish meeting and then sell it off. While we originally had been looking for lower prices into Wednesday, we have to follow NQ patterns and momentum. As always, no real money to be made selling this market. Will have to see 2370 come out to turn bearish in any minor way.
WEEKLY CHART: Our new computer models are suggesting 2550 and that had been a target for 2018 but given the greed expansion, we should be patient with thinking this market will crash and burn. We have not seen it this year. Maybe 15% from June to October but a seasonal fall usually happens after mid-June. NQ has clearly needed new highs to 5666 and probably more before the S & P will cave in.
LONGER TERM: (4/26) Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5200–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2150 is the most likely first downward target into September/October if the market can close below 2300. May not get the sell signal until June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Cycles are mixed with some pointing down. Clearly at a fulcrum point on Wednesday.
