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Will Crude suddenly Soar after this month?

(1/20) Some crude cycles suggest it could hold up into Sunday. Crude needs to take out 7789 to confirm a temporary top. If the market does not break soon, we still could get to resistance to 82.60 and 83.33.

We looked closely at early Feb. cycles. We still have a cycle low into Jan. 30-1^st and then the market should take off into late Feb. The cycle repeats the explosive move we had last Jan and Feb and into early March. Not sure if the fundamentals are there for a repeat of that move but crude is not falling and oil stocks are not falling despite recession fears.

We are not clear where the pullback into January will go but looking like it will be more like 7660-7600 than anything more dramatic with the next upward pattern at least getting to 9000. Something bigger is very possible.

All of our cycles suggest lower crude prices into the end of the month and all the ETFs like USO and XLE do not look done. We will want to get into USO at the next pullback low into late January. .

LONGER-TERM CYCLES:

We looked at longer-term cycles and they are friendly from a low in late January to a high in early April. For now, we are ready to throw short-term cycles out the window and continue to focus on the pattern.Continue reading

CHINA AND JAPAN’S IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.

A few key fundamental factors overhanging the markets. China is going into its Lunar New Year this weekend and the idea is that they will be more active during this holiday, and after, and they will need more energy support crude. . It will also be tough to handle inflationary pressures once their economy opens back up. This may be a reason for the influx of investor money in commodities this week.

Japan’s failure to control the 10-year price of their 10-year bond, despite 78 billion in QE, is giving signs that their Central Bank could break. We also have the looming US debt ceiling crisis hanging over the market. This has hammered the dollar with key support at 100.54 if 101.20 comes out. All of these factors support being in Bitcoin and metals and we had noted Bitcoin cycles are due to peek into next week and gold may just not pull back enough to let us in at decent levels. We are also at a point where a 2nd wave correction is due on stocks into the FOMC meeting. When will it start and where can we buy stocks for a Feb. rally?

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Major Turns for Financials About to Happen

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1) T-notes could get up to 115.28 and the
dollar got to 101.72 and 101.40-50 should hold.

2) Gold is close to the 1920 target and silver still cannot get to ideal pattern completion at 2450.

3) Crude oil cycles are an exception as we see cycle highs into Wednesday and the market is almost at 7960 and could go higher.

4) Some Bitcoin cycles suggest holding up into the 23^rd but that would not go with our NQ cycles that are suggesting topping.

We should expect 3 wave corrections in the stock market into the end of the month and also bonds should retrace and a recovery in the dollar to 105.50 will happen and a larger retracement in gold with silver needing to go to 2270 or 2224.

So the next few sessions are transition periods so act accordingly to bank profits and by early next week there will be some shorts to do for a few weeks.
Today is profit-taking before a 3-day weekend so it’s unclear if the upper numbers on stocks and bonds will hit on Sunday/Monday/Monday night or at all depending on weekend news. Stay on top of these markets with a 1 month trial of the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer for 97.00.

Exciting Week in Financials Ahead.

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1) Stocks could hold up as long as Wednesday and the upper target on the S & P futures is 3984. There do appear a few more places for entries either at the end of this week or into late January and Feb. is a better month for the market to take off and accelerate.

2) Watch breakout above 11450 for acceleration in NQ 100.

In both of these cases, if this happens, we may not get the big pullback until the end of the week.

3) Watch the dollar index at 102.07 for a minimum pullback and temporary low

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Is the Stock Market Ready to Roll?

Friday’s strong showing at our earliest time window for a bottom was a first positive sign. Cash S & P has early resistance at 3920-25 and 3940-5 and then could have a deep pullback to cash 3840 later in the week. Many ETFs we follow would look better if they have more significant secondary lows like XLE for energy stocks down to at least 8100 and XLU for utilities down to 66-67 and XLV for Health Care down to 127.50. We may not get it. Gold is also about to bump against major resistance and is rather overbought now even if larger cycle highs are not due until the first week of March. These markets continue to be quite volatile so stay in touch with our major daily research by subscribing to the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer. One month trial for 97.00. Click here.

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Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

The stock market has confirmed a temporary high and is starting a correction at least into Dec. 16th. When is the next entry for shorts? How it reacts off of the Dec. 16th low will be important to see if it will continue lower into early January. Silver has confirmed a high and also gold and they should break the whole month. Crude oil confirmed a breakdown to much lower numbers now. Stay on top of our projections and ways to trade these exciting markets with the Fortucast Timers.

-Barry

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When Does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

When does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

A close look at the Powell press conference does not reveal that it is that dovish and it was widely felt that the Dec. rate hike would only be 50 bps. already so why the extreme reaction? Most of the Fed governors are still hawkish and the market was just trigger-happy to buy going into the first of the month. We have a cluster of turning points for stocks and metals into Dec. 5-6th and usually, the market is lower a week before the FOMC announcement on Dec. 14th.

Gold projects 1848 for pattern completion and the dollar is close to key support at 104.05 and 103.72. The S & P probably will not get through 4154 on futures. The bigger question, is how much does the market go down in December, when does it stop and what does next year look like?

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-Barry

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LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

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Stocks have had a nice bounce but we doubt 4100 on cash will come out by Friday or Sunday night and cycles turn negative into the end of the month and actually into the end of the year and into early January. Not sure the FOMC will cooperate with enough dovish language to make people happy. The good news is that we do see a January/Feb. rally coming and we have worked on our 2023 forecast. For now, if you need to take profits on stocks that you do not like, look at Friday/Monday. We will wait to buy and invest until later. Gold also gave a sell signal on Wednesday and crude oil does not look great next week. Stay on top of our daily projections and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Timers. One month’s trial is 97.00.
-Barry

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Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Confirmed Breakdown for Crude Oil

Crude oil took out the key 8040 regions today confirming a move to 71.00 and possibly 65.00. Cycle lows are due at the earliest into the end of the month and we have to look at Dec. more closely to see if it can extend in time. Seasonals are often lower into mid-December depending on how Old Man Winter behaves and how early. Oil stocks are very overbought and due for a correction with the stock market into December. We still like this complex into next year and may finally get the break we have needed.

-Barry

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Will Metals Continue their Ride?

Will Metals Continue their Ride?

Longer-term metals cycles are friendly into March 2023 and we are still waiting for gold to close over 1820 and silver to take out 2240 to confirm higher numbers.

Cycles suggest that we will get a confirmed bottom and then a secondary low into December which will be a better entry and if the FED is not as generous as many are hoping for, gold and silver may retrace recent gains.

-Barry

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