FOR FRIDAY: (6/23) Always nice to take profits before weekend and livestock reports. Possible that a final push down by Sunday or early Monday will be followed by a bounce going into the USDA report next week. In the end the crop looks good and rains and coolness will continue to be supportive. Market overdone for cattle on feed report. We still need to crunch next week’s meat cycles.Continue reading
Stocks should still be sold into Sunday night
(6/22) Crude is still falling apart and everyone has to be a bit nervous with US and Russian planes buzzing each other in a show of ego. We have to really be concerned about our leadership and military when these kinds of games happen. On the bright side, there’s an olive branch from North Korea that will probably be stepped on by the US and cycles for July don’t look great for their leader. Stocks should still be sold into Sunday night but may recover next week. We’re not seeing any signs of a meltdown.Continue reading
Continue to expect grain weakness
FOR THURSDAY: (6/22) We would continue to expect grain weakness but keep an eye on European weather and how much rain hits the Delta in case short-covering comes out of nowhere. Short-covering likely by Friday before the COF report also.Continue reading
S&P close to issuing sell signal
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/21) Stocks couldn’t handle tumbling crude oil prices and API prices after the close on Tuesday aren’t helping. Market is close to issuing a sell signal but it’s not yet verified by NQ futures or SP cash and we have seen the cavalry come to the rescue too many times to start roaring like a bear. Dollar completed a key number and needs to fall part now and metals are due for a bounce here but unless it is dramatic, new lows coming into Friday.Continue reading
Wheat weather in focus
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/21) The trade is already playing the latest storms so not enough rain and they would go up. We’re at the point in the season where things usually fall apart and grains came off enough, except for wheat to suggest that’s the case so we may have to jump on more shorts tonight. Hot weather for wheat growers may create a new high there and we had seen that as a possibility this morning. That may help the rest of the complex.Continue reading
Gold close to key support
FOR TUESDAY: (6/20) Monday was a big surprise with new highs on SP and Tuesday looks higher also. Tuesday is a major Bradley model turn date and it’s coming in as a high and gold is close to key support as is dollar to resistance. Starting to wonder what might happen to create major turns for everything now?Continue reading
Use rallies Tuesday night/early Wednesday to add shorts, hedges, cash sales
FOR TUESDAY: (6/20) Crop conditions report showed a 4-point fall in wheat conditions and it might allow some spillover buying to corn and beans and get those market higher into late Tuesday or early Wednesday so that we can sell. Grains opened higher but maybe only wheat can run away and use rallies into Tuesday night and early Wednesday to add to shorts and hedges and cash sales. Cattle sill in trouble and still can be hold but buy dips on hogs.Continue reading
Cycles for Sunday night strongly lower
FOR MONDAY (6/19) Often the day after Quadruple witch is lower and cycles for Sunday night seem strongly lower if there’s some shocking news over the weekend. If not, stocks may take a few days to wander up to 2442-3 on the Sept. S & P and then fall. Not a lot of news next week and we wonder how soon summer vacation doldrums will hit the market.Continue reading
Grains could be down hard Sunday/Monday
FOR MONDAY: (6/19) Can wheat continue to lead the way when corn and beans will be ok? We hate going into these weather weekends and have to use big stops to deal with the craziness on the news. The speculative cycle that topped grains last year is due right here so even if there’s a final flourish higher for Sept wheat to 490 or 500-1 over the next few days, that should be it. The issue is how much it will bring funds along for the ride into as late as Tuesday night? We still think that grains could be down hard on Sunday/Monday even if there’s a final recovery. Still, we found one more cycle that usually keeps grains up into Tuesday night or early Wednesday so we won’t get too aggressive with top-picking yet. We would continue to use strength to get rid of cash and get hedges on. Cattle seem lower for a few more days.Continue reading
Probably more quiet trading on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (6/16) Quadruple witch and end of the week exhaustion may create more quiet trading and leave us waiting for the new shoes to drop on Sunday/Monday. At this point we have to see how much more short-covering happens overnight and early Friday before taking anything home.Continue reading