Patterns suggest more downside

FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) Cycles are complicated going into the end of the month. Patterns suggest a bit more to the downside with bottoming and basing action and then probably a buy setting up by Wednesday. We’re willing to start buying July grains if key numbers hit.Continue reading

Complicated cycles ahead

FOR MONDAY: (2/27) Cycles are complicated going into the end of the month. Patterns suggest a bit more to the downside with bottoming and basing action and then probably a buy setting up by Wednesday. We’re not going to rush and buy July without a secondary low and we have to continue to move stops down and take profits on any remaining grain shorts. We still like hogs to the upside until at least Wednesday and see cattle up this week if you want to bottom pick the neutral report.Continue reading

Lower grains for 1-2 more sessions

OR FRIDAY: (2/24) Trade waiting on Cattle on Feed report. We’re seeing lower grains for 1-2 more sessions but then short-covering should develop. We’re looking to cover March hedges and did some already. Usually by March 1st, grains are a strong seasonal buy and we’ll use weakness soon to buy the stronger July contract.Continue reading

Expecting bearish reaction to Outlook report

(2/23) Our sources say that the Ag Outlook report will be released at 8 am EST but may not be posted completely to their website until 3 pm EST. Over the years, the market has usually reacted to this report early in the morning. We haven’t taken a heavy position with anything, as this report can be like the quarterly reports and can create huge moves. Farm Futures expects corn acreage at 90.49 million vs 2016’s 94 million; soybeans at 90.52 million vs 83.4 million and wheat at 45.68 million vs 50.2 million. Based on cycles, we expect a bearish reaction but the impact may be more on new crop which we are not even covering yet. We’re getting close to end of the month seasonal lows and we should be out of short March grains by early Monday and will roll to the May and July contracts. Hogs broke hard but are close to a key cycle low and cattle look lower on Thursday.Continue reading

No risk/reward for selling grains without a bounce

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/22) Usually we can count on hog bounces on Wednesday and if they are weak, we’re probably ok selling. Cattle look lower a few days. We have had a bias for lower grains into Wednesday/Thursday and not sure the USDA outlook report will mean that much, although we should consider it as important as a quarterly report. No risk/reward for selling grains without a bounce. Cycles look rather weak here.Continue reading

Lower cattle prices on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (2/21 no change) Three-day weekends are tricky to trade. Grains are oversold and if they crash Monday night on bearish weather, they will have to bounce on Tuesday. Hogs look higher for a few days and have to wait for the dust to settle on cattle but seeing lower prices on Tuesday and willing to sell a key pattern completion on the feeders.Continue reading

Willing to sell key pattern completion on feeders

FOR TUESDAY: (2/20-21) Three-day weekends are tricky to trade. Grains are oversold and if they crash Monday night on bearish weather, they will have to bounce on Tuesday. Hogs look higher for a few days and have to wait for the dust to settle on cattle but seeing lower prices on Tuesday and willing to sell a key pattern completion on the feeders.Continue reading

Wednesday may be the best day of the week for recovery

FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/15) Wednesday may be the best day of the week for meats and grains to recover and if we’re to get more shorts on, we will have to be patient another day. There is a larger cycle for grains that may be holding them up that peaks into next Tuesday and if the market can’t break down on Thursday, we may have to deal with it keeping the market up.Continue reading