Category: ETF Timer

Energy in Chaos

ENERGY IN CHAOS

Crude oil is showing signs of bottoming on the charts and now that the US rejected the Iran deal, maybe it can start higher again. It had a technical breakout on Wednesday getting above 9310 and should get up to at least 96.90 or 99.90 short-term before a 2nd wave pullback into nearly next week can be bought. Cycle highs dominate into the middle of September.

Natural gas is close to a breakdown if 9. 00 comes out and at best we will get a secondary high into Friday and then lower prices into next week which should go to 8.60.

ETF’s connected to oil stock ETF like the XLE and XOP should out-perform until the middle of September and UNG for natural gas stocks may pullback but should eventually go higher into winter with Natural Gas needed to go to 11.50 and 12.50 and European shortages are not going to go away.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

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S & P on the Edge?

STOCKS UPDATED AT 2:00 pm
We had noted that we thought that much of the day was lower. NQ broke key
support and now has support at 12809 and then 12729-12700.

The S & P has major support on cash at 4100 and on futures AT about 4090.
The issue is that this could be just a quick and nasty 4th wave and all of the
correction yet now we are not willing to bottom-fish until Wednesday at the
earliest.
We looked more closely at cycles this week and the market could stay lower into
Wednesday. The end of the week is mixed and may be sideways before
Jackson Hole.
Never a dull moment.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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Stocks close to exhaustion?

STOCKS CLOSE TO EXHAUSTION?

The relentless 3rd wave rally on stocks has gone much more than any has imagined. The expansion energy point peaks by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest and the upper end of S & P cash is 4367 although lower is possible. While a 2-week congestive pullback should happen, it may not be that thrilling for bears and shorts as the larger uptrend continues into September. There will be more upside but because the FOMC is not done raising rates and they project a need to go to 3.50%, this rally is only a retracement from the sharp fall into June. What will the next slide look like and how long will it last? Stay on top of our forecasts with Fortucast timers.

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-Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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OIL ON THE ROPES

We have a cycle low for crude oil by Friday. The market is tanking today with hopes that the Iran deal will go through. Patterns on crude oil futures suggest a move to 85.00 or 84.05 but lower numbers to 81.50 are possible. We do expect a bounce for 3-4 weeks once this week’s low comes in but this probably is not the final bottom as the Biden administration wants gas prices to be normal by the time midterms come. Oil stocks and Oil ETF are due for a retracement also with the XLE and XOP ETF and they may be worth a short-term buy for 3-4 weeks.

Stay on top of entries and the latest strategies with Fortucast.

-Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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Retracement Time for Stocks

Retracement Time for Stocks

While the larger move up on the stock market is not complete until September, the market has hit very key levels and is ready for a retracment at least to S & P cash 3995 if not 3940 this week. The correction may be completed by Thursday or at the latest by next Monday. There is still nice upside in some sectors but the market is rather overbought and we have to watch entries carefully.

Crude oil should finish its first correction by early next week also and 81.00 or 78.82 might be a rest place even if bounces this week go to 92.50. There will be a big bounce in crude oil into the middle of September and that will help oil stocks and the XLE and XOP be desirable for a trade but we are concerned about another meltdown in the energy complex into late October or November.

Stay on top of entries and the latest strategies with Fortucast.

-Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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Has the stock market put in a tradable bottom?

It will not take much to get to 4010 on S & P futures and start a pullback to 3932 or max. 3903 on futures. The extended target beyond 4010 is 4033. We are open to the market holding up into Friday before we get the typical pre-FOMC movement lower for Sunday/Monday of next week. At best we can count on a move to 4100 on cash at some point and maybe that will be early August or maybe it will take longer.

The big question is will a 1.00 point hike and guidance for another strong hike freak the market out like it usually does? Hence the next major buy is not until the 28^th. We have had extreme reactions lately the week of FOMC.

The ideal friendly pattern suggests a move to 4008 and then a fall to 3880 for the most bullish situation for the S & P and then higher into the week of August 1-3rd and lower into August 11th.

We have the most complex geo-cosmic and political cycles the week of July 31-August 6th and we definitely see volcanoes and earthquakes but usually, they do not impact the US markets. What kind of political craziness we have will be more of a factor. We still see a pullback into August 11^th but will that be some kind of B wave or 2^nd wave rather than a new low to 3450?

There are cycle highs into mid-September. Every day is a new puzzle piece and we need to see where we are into July 28th and August 11th to decide whether a buy is significant.

The bear market low is not until Nov. 2023 so in the end, investors will be disappointed.

Financial Market Timer

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Bubbling Financial Crisis Emerging

There are a lot of disturbing headlines out there as we climax into a crisis in early August when we have a cluster of volatile cycles July 31-August 6th but much of that will be felt before.

The Saudis are willing to move away from the Petrodollar which will devastate the United States’ dominance. On July 22^nd, Europe could be in crisis with no nat. gas leading to an even steeper fall in the Euro and collapse of European stocks and bonds and its spillover to the world. A US rail strike is set to hit on July 18^th and you think we have supply chain problems already? Suddenly a technical rally on the dollar index this winter to 11900 and a fall in the Euro to 9100 does not seem that absurd. Meanwhile, 62,000 Unvaxx’d guards, reserve Soldiers are facing a loss of pay as the army prepares to enforce vaccine mandates. Get ahead of the curve as things are starting to heat up. The biggest hope for this market is a huge Chinese liquidity injection like they did in 2008 but given they want deflation to buy everything up cheaper, sure they will delay it. Some Chinese bank runs are happening. If you are missing these stories you had better move away from mainstream media. Stay on top of the impact of all these events with Fortucast Timers. It’s going to get volatile out there.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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MORE BEAR COMING

Last month, a few days before CPI, the market started down and then accelerated. The stock market has fallen enough this morning to at least signal that the S & P will go to 3700 if not 3665 and if we get a friendly surprise on Wednesday, it may recover on Thursday. We are not hopeful with cycles. The April 21-28th cycle is repeating and the market fell 9% during that time and that starts on Wednesday and goes into the 23rd. We do expect the market to take out the late June low. Stay on top of our strategies with Fortucast.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

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Relief at the gas pump coming?

We have seen the break in the crude complex coming with the CRB topping and projecting 215-225 and the XLE having topped early reflecting profit-taking in oil stocks. With crude under 100.00, we can finally confirm projections to 93.33 and 89.58 next to get five waves down. The final projection for crude may be to 84.00 and cycle lows dominate into at least early August and we are looking further out. This will of course help gasoline.

All markets need a break and fears of a recession are killing crude now. We still have higher prices for a while so enjoy this break while you can.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

Try it for one month 97$ Click here!

Click here to view on our website