Has the stock market put in a tradable bottom? 

It will not take much to get to 4010 on S & P futures and start a pullback to 3932 or max. 3903 on futures.  The extended target beyond 4010 is 4033.  We are open to the market holding up into Friday before we get the typical pre-FOMC movement lower for Sunday/Monday of next week.  At best we can count on a move to 4100 on cash at some point and maybe that will be early August or maybe it will take longer.

The big question is will a 1.00 point hike and guidance for another strong hike freak the market out like it usually does?   Hence the next major buy is not until the 28th.   We have had extreme reactions lately the week of FOMC.

The ideal friendly pattern suggests a move to 4008 and then a fall to 3880 for the most bullish situation for the S & P and then higher into the week of August 1-3rd and lower into August 11th.

 We have the most complex geo-cosmic and political cycles the week of July 31-August 6th and we definitely see volcanoes and earthquakes but usually, they do not impact the US markets.  What kind of political craziness we have will be more of a factor. We still see a pullback into August 11th but will that be some kind of B wave or 2nd wave rather than a new low to 3450?
There are cycle highs into mid-September.  Every day is a new puzzle piece and we need to see where we are into July 28th and August 11th to decide whether a buy is significant.
The bear market low is not until Nov. 2023 so in the end, investors will be disappointed.

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