Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (3/9) We have rollover to June S & P starting and the trade continues to wait for employment numbers. Our cycle work suggests gold will hold and recover into Monday and that the dollar will come off but will it survive computer ALGO jerky action first?Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/8) Confirmation of a top in stocks may finally have people heading for the exit after huge profits but we don’t see a major spill. Weird Wally Wednesday for stocks will have more longs exiting and rolling to June by late Thursday. Given a congestive week, we could see all the markets reverse a bit and drive us crazy.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (3/7) S & P cash confirmed a top for now but we didn’t get a close below 2370 although it should come. So used to choppy congestive action before employment report that the chance of a sustained meltdown on the S & P is likely and at best 2350 could happen. Most interesting in the news is Asia with North Korea and major Chinese meetings. Wiretaps and impeachment headlines are mostly distractions to keep you addicted to increasing media ratings. Very sad the state that professional journalism has fallen to. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him?Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (3/6) The Monday before employment report often is a very volatile big-range day and then we see consolidation until the report comes out. We seemed to get sell signals for the dollar and we can clearly sell rallies in T-notes and sell stocks Sunday but usually by late Monday we have to deal with 3-4 days of sickly congestion and unclear patterns. Willing to take a stand on Sunday night on some markets but may get quickly out.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (3/3) Yellen’s speech is replacing some excitement for what might have been a quiet Friday with the unemployment report not until March 10.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (3/2) Unemployment report is not until March 10 so Friday isn’t that special this week. Record highs and patterns still don’t look complete and we won’t top-pick stocks or the dollar. Crude looks higher into Friday and metals do also and still more room for lower euros and pounds.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/1) We’ve been tempted to publish our report after Trump’s speech but there will be the reaction and counter-reaction and the head-fake and the high-frequency trading and in the end we have to go with price and pattern and cycles and try to ignore the news. We got out of the way by taking profits in the morning on short dollars, long euros and long gold and short T-notes. Cycles for the speech are positive and that looks like it will carry into the morning so we should be ok being long stocks and long dollars if you want to speculate and there’s always another report or announcement to consider.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/28) There are some new crosscurrents happening. Everyone is waiting on Trump, who is saying another 56 billion for defense and more talk coming soon on health care and infrastructure and a delay in a tax proposal. Still, the man of surprises is likely to surprise on Tuesday night and we’ll continue to trade based on cycles and technicals but will keep stops tight into Tuesday night and probably miss any fireworks unless we put dangerous buy and sell stops in.Continue reading

(2/27) Will the trade wait for Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday to blast off again? There’s enough of a chance for a weird events on Sunday night or early Monday that we’ve gone home with only a few positions. We wonder if the dam in CA has a chance of breaking over the weekend. If something bizarre is going to happen, it stands a good chance of happening over the weekend. If we get a big move lower on Sunday night to complete patterns, the trade will buy it and take it to new highs. At this point it looks like spike highs for stocks and the dollar into Wednesday–following the speech–and that may be it, as a “sell the fact” will take place or a huge disappointment.Continue reading

(2/24) Will the trade wait for Trump’s address to Congress on Monday to blast off again? There is enough of a chance for a weird event on Sunday night or early Monday that it probably doesn’t make a lot of sense to take anything home over the weekend. Earthquake and volcanic cycles are very strong into Tuesday/Wednesday and we wonder if the dam in CA has a chance of breaking over the weekend. If something bizarre is going to happen, it stands a good chance of happening over the weekend. If we get a big move lower on Sunday night to complete patterns, the trade will buy it and take it to new highs.Continue reading