Crude oil in Trouble

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Crude failed to issue a breakout signal above 83.70 on Nov crude futures with the hurricane and patterns and cycles suggest a fall next to 7220 and cycles look lower for a few weeks.  The X-Factor is an Oct 5th meeting by OPEC.  Reuters notes that It is “likely” that the group will agree on a cut, a source at OPEC told Reuters.  At the previous meeting, OPEC+ reversed the 100,000-barrels-per-day increase for September and returned the October quota to the levels from August.

Oil stocks have been in trouble with the XLE and the XOP and we worry about a Nov. cycle low for them also.  At best the XLE might recover to 75.72 if it goes up with a rebound in the stock market due the first few weeks of October.  We worry about seeing 60.92 next. How low will crude fall into the late fall?


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