Whispers of a Slowdown in Hikes

The stock market recovered from the abyss on Friday and the S & P futures need to take out 3763 and then 3820 for it to be meaningful.  We do not like cycles next week and at best the market may hold up on Sunday.  There are too many x-factor out there with the Yen at 32 year lows, the chaos in British politics and their pension program in jeopardy.  Russia and Ukraine look particularly intense going into Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chance for the S & P to go to 3550 on cash quickly is much stronger than a breakout.  What do we see for the rest of the year?

WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos has set the narrative once again this morning, writing that while 75bps is a done deal for the November meeting, the FOMC discussion will be a “critical staging ground” for a potential step down to 50bps in December.

Simply put, Timiraos explains that some Fed officials want to discuss a slowing of the velocity of rate-hikes (to 50bps in Dec from 75bps exp) without triggering a stock market melt-up (and the subsequent easing of financial conditions). So Timiraos’ report is a strawman meant to shake out the initial reactions and build the narrative that 50bps is still a significant hike…

We got our fundamental hockey puck to save on Friday but can it last?

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