Stocks Back in Panic Mode
The PPI today at 8.3% was higher than last month and NQ is down 4.3% and the S & P is down 3.2% by 11 am Central time. Usually a week before FOMC, which is Wednesday, the 21st, the stock market stops rallying and with CPI, it appears to have started a day earlier. Oversold conditions may create a dead cat bounce into Wednesday but we are concerned that something bigger is happening again and we have cycle lows until at least Sept. 23rd.
World situation cycles are also a bit on edge. Russian/Ukraine tensions are increasing and we are moving toward Midterms and we worry about X-factor events disrupting a potential change in power. Europe is also on edge between energy, weather and World War 3. Our long-term forecast for a sharp fall in the Euro next year is easy to make but a 1 month recovery is possible after FOMC. We are watching key turns within a few days of FOMC for key turns for many markets. Dec. T-notes could get to 112.16 and the dollar might still do a divergent high and gold could get pulled to 1653 as it failed to break out above 1750 this week when silver did.
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-Barry
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