LONGER-TERM CYCLES FOR THE US AND WORLD
GENERAL ECONOMIC INSIGHTS:
We have plenty of tensions rising as we move into April. Geopolitical cycles are intense
into the week of March 12-16 th with increasing war tensions as the US is absurdly
thinking that they can win in a long-term nuclear war against Russia and Russia and
China keeps moving closer to joining forces. There are some climaxes in April 13 th and
the difficult cycle will be dominating until May. In general, This cycle increases tension
and stress and with the war tensions in the air, something is going to pop up in Europe
and Ukraine and we still have China playing games in Taiwan as the US continues its
game of chicken in the skies with Chinese planes.
You can see why April is not going to be a great month for the stock market and the
dollar will continue to rally against the Euro with the dollar going to 110-113 and the
Euro probably falling to 97-101.
Higher dollars tend to hurt gold and it is a myth that gold is a hedge against inflation, in
reality, gold only is sought when governmental trust in currencies goes out the window
which could happen in May and June as the debt ceiling crisis comes to a peak. Gold
has a short-term bounce finally coming but it may not mean much.
Meanwhile, we probably have 2-3 more rate hikes into June, and only when the FED
breaks the camels back and we worry about recession more strongly in the 3 rd and 4 th
quarters, will interest rates come down again and stocks will respond to the second half
of the year with another swoon.
Cycles into April 1-May 6th this will increase world tensions and increase unexpected
events. We might see more earthquakes and natural disasters. .
I have not had enough time to look at all the cycles for the next few years but big the
world debt crisis is not going to go away these problems have been boiling and brewing
for years and governments make wars to get out of crises as was the case with World
War 2 after the depression. I have a sense that 2023 is a better year for prosperity in
the first ½ of the year than 2024 but there is a steady decline coming from the US as we
move into later years in the decade and having your gardens and greenhouses, sources
of power, and being in safe communities are things to think about.
Cycles for stock market look better in May and June but seasonally that is also when
stocks top out. Still, a 13 year cycle is up into June and we need to see how it will
impact certain countries will be dependent on their economies Unlikely it will happen in
the US but the debt ceiling crisis is another way for governments to manipulate us.
The recessionary cycles are peaking itn June 19, 2023. The stock market will initially
like a recession as it means the FED will be forced to lower rates in the 2 nd half of the
year and the market may be trading that idea for the May/June rally.
Looking ahead, we have to look for bargains on defense stocks and sporting goods as a
12 year cycle and will support their growth in the next year above other sectors. We
would look to buy dips at the general stock market low which is early January. The
best ETFs for Defense are ITA and XAR. ITA is a bit overbought but XAR has some
upside potential to 118-20.
Natural gas looks like it has a long-term uptrend and has bottomed and should be
higher into the year 2025. Europe avoided a crisis with a mild winter but how long with
that last? Natural gas has a key 29.5 year cycle and the next 2 years look good. Still,
UNG, the ETF for natural gas did bottom at 7.00 and should not fall more. Natural gas
got to below 2.00 in Feb and should rally to 13.00 eventually and there are still
shortages in the world even if the European cold winter did not manifest this year.
Worldwide food shortages will also fuel inflation as grain cycles are set for a cycle high
into May 2023. There are grain future ETFs like SOYB for soybeans and CORN for
corn and even cotton that will do well this year as there are several drought cycles due
to hit the Midwest this summer and only Mars in watery nakshatras may save us a bit.
BAL is the ETF for cotton. Grain futures may not bottom until April when a wet spring
will delay plantings and then we will have a hot summer.
April 2024 is a pivotal moment for the US. There is a key 248-year cycle of revolution
going back to the US founding. In similar cycles for other great civilizations like Rome,
did lead to a major dethroning of power and it is clear that China wants to take over the
mantle of a world leader and that the US is sinking. Can it be saved? This cycle is
long and carried into 2024-25. There will be a crisis next year but I am more hopeful
now that the 12-year cycle will help a positive transformation into early June 2024.
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