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A Bounce for Stocks?

A Bounce for Stocks?

The stock market survived Powell’s comments today which were still hawkish: “History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy,” Powell said during a moderated discussion at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington. “I can assure you that my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done.

Cycles are positive through the end of next week but the market could pause before the Sept 13th CPI although it may not mean much this month because oil continues to be lower and should help curb inflation.

We are not friendly this fall for stocks and this rally may be the last chance to unload stocks that are underperforming as a fall to 3233 on the S & P into the 4th quarter seems likely. We do not see a buying opportunity for a while and bear markets often last at least 2 years.

-Barry

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Crude and Natural Gas in Trouble This Week.

Crude oil broke the key 85.00 regions today and projected 77-78.00. That could be in by Friday/Sunday and then bounce to 94.00 max. could start but it would then project a late fall low down to 60.00. That does not bode well for energy stocks for now. It seems that the Biden administration will be successful in getting gasoline and inflation under control before the elections.

Natural gas also broke and projects 7.09 by the end of the week and that will pull UNG or the ETF for natural gas stocks down to 25.50 or so.

These markets will come back as winter comes. Natural gas cycles are supportive into early October and Europe is in big trouble with Russia completely cutting off supplies and the pipelines of current natural gas stocks will not move unless the new supply is pushed through. We do have natural gas going back up to 10.50 and 11.50 and 12.50 this year easily and it will push UNG back up.

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Dollar Breakout and the demise of the Euro

Dollar Breakout and the demise of the Euro

The dollar issued a long-term breakout signal by taking out the 110.00 regions and it projects 117 and 121 long-term into the year 2023. Higher interest rates to 3.75% or 5% will continue to push dollar demand. In the same breath, the Euro is closer to quickly falling to 94.00 and eventually 91.00 and lower and given the energy and inflation crisis in Europe and potential spillover of the Ukraine war if Nato is dumb enough to engage Russia. It’s hard to imagine Europe pulling out of its tailspin. You can invest with ETF’s like UUP for long dollars or EUO for short Euros or you can do futures or other vehicles. It is a good long-term investment.

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-Barry

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Time for Metals?

Time for Metals?

Gold completed a key pattern today at 1720 and could get a bit lower to 1713-16 but not expecting anything more. Cycles are positive into mid-September and we should at least get up to 1882 on Dec. gold.

Dec. silver has key support at 1732 which is just about in and should start recovery to 2282 into mid-September.

Metals have been doggy and the bankers have a way of selling them but we have very key patterns and cycles complete here and something will happen.

There are also patterns that could suggest that this will be the lowest area for silver over the next few years.

Barry

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Energy in Chaos

ENERGY IN CHAOS

Crude oil is showing signs of bottoming on the charts and now that the US rejected the Iran deal, maybe it can start higher again. It had a technical breakout on Wednesday getting above 9310 and should get up to at least 96.90 or 99.90 short-term before a 2nd wave pullback into nearly next week can be bought. Cycle highs dominate into the middle of September.

Natural gas is close to a breakdown if 9. 00 comes out and at best we will get a secondary high into Friday and then lower prices into next week which should go to 8.60.

ETF’s connected to oil stock ETF like the XLE and XOP should out-perform until the middle of September and UNG for natural gas stocks may pullback but should eventually go higher into winter with Natural Gas needed to go to 11.50 and 12.50 and European shortages are not going to go away.

Barry

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S & P on the Edge?

STOCKS UPDATED AT 2:00 pm
We had noted that we thought that much of the day was lower. NQ broke key
support and now has support at 12809 and then 12729-12700.

The S & P has major support on cash at 4100 and on futures AT about 4090.
The issue is that this could be just a quick and nasty 4th wave and all of the
correction yet now we are not willing to bottom-fish until Wednesday at the
earliest.
We looked more closely at cycles this week and the market could stay lower into
Wednesday. The end of the week is mixed and may be sideways before
Jackson Hole.
Never a dull moment.

Barry

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Stocks close to exhaustion?

STOCKS CLOSE TO EXHAUSTION?

The relentless 3rd wave rally on stocks has gone much more than any has imagined. The expansion energy point peaks by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest and the upper end of S & P cash is 4367 although lower is possible. While a 2-week congestive pullback should happen, it may not be that thrilling for bears and shorts as the larger uptrend continues into September. There will be more upside but because the FOMC is not done raising rates and they project a need to go to 3.50%, this rally is only a retracement from the sharp fall into June. What will the next slide look like and how long will it last? Stay on top of our forecasts with Fortucast timers.

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-Barry

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OIL ON THE ROPES

We have a cycle low for crude oil by Friday. The market is tanking today with hopes that the Iran deal will go through. Patterns on crude oil futures suggest a move to 85.00 or 84.05 but lower numbers to 81.50 are possible. We do expect a bounce for 3-4 weeks once this week’s low comes in but this probably is not the final bottom as the Biden administration wants gas prices to be normal by the time midterms come. Oil stocks and Oil ETF are due for a retracement also with the XLE and XOP ETF and they may be worth a short-term buy for 3-4 weeks.

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-Barry

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Retracement Time for Stocks

Retracement Time for Stocks

While the larger move up on the stock market is not complete until September, the market has hit very key levels and is ready for a retracment at least to S & P cash 3995 if not 3940 this week. The correction may be completed by Thursday or at the latest by next Monday. There is still nice upside in some sectors but the market is rather overbought and we have to watch entries carefully.

Crude oil should finish its first correction by early next week also and 81.00 or 78.82 might be a rest place even if bounces this week go to 92.50. There will be a big bounce in crude oil into the middle of September and that will help oil stocks and the XLE and XOP be desirable for a trade but we are concerned about another meltdown in the energy complex into late October or November.

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-Barry

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Has the stock market put in a tradable bottom?

It will not take much to get to 4010 on S & P futures and start a pullback to 3932 or max. 3903 on futures. The extended target beyond 4010 is 4033. We are open to the market holding up into Friday before we get the typical pre-FOMC movement lower for Sunday/Monday of next week. At best we can count on a move to 4100 on cash at some point and maybe that will be early August or maybe it will take longer.

The big question is will a 1.00 point hike and guidance for another strong hike freak the market out like it usually does? Hence the next major buy is not until the 28^th. We have had extreme reactions lately the week of FOMC.

The ideal friendly pattern suggests a move to 4008 and then a fall to 3880 for the most bullish situation for the S & P and then higher into the week of August 1-3rd and lower into August 11th.

We have the most complex geo-cosmic and political cycles the week of July 31-August 6th and we definitely see volcanoes and earthquakes but usually, they do not impact the US markets. What kind of political craziness we have will be more of a factor. We still see a pullback into August 11^th but will that be some kind of B wave or 2^nd wave rather than a new low to 3450?

There are cycle highs into mid-September. Every day is a new puzzle piece and we need to see where we are into July 28th and August 11th to decide whether a buy is significant.

The bear market low is not until Nov. 2023 so in the end, investors will be disappointed.

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