Retracement Time for Stocks

Retracement Time for Stocks

While the larger move up on the stock market is not complete until September, the market has hit very key levels and is ready for a retracment at least to S & P cash 3995 if not 3940 this week. The correction may be completed by Thursday or at the latest by next Monday. There is still nice upside in some sectors but the market is rather overbought and we have to watch entries carefully.

Crude oil should finish its first correction by early next week also and 81.00 or 78.82 might be a rest place even if bounces this week go to 92.50. There will be a big bounce in crude oil into the middle of September and that will help oil stocks and the XLE and XOP be desirable for a trade but we are concerned about another meltdown in the energy complex into late October or November.

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-Barry

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Has the stock market put in a tradable bottom?

It will not take much to get to 4010 on S & P futures and start a pullback to 3932 or max. 3903 on futures. The extended target beyond 4010 is 4033. We are open to the market holding up into Friday before we get the typical pre-FOMC movement lower for Sunday/Monday of next week. At best we can count on a move to 4100 on cash at some point and maybe that will be early August or maybe it will take longer.

The big question is will a 1.00 point hike and guidance for another strong hike freak the market out like it usually does? Hence the next major buy is not until the 28^th. We have had extreme reactions lately the week of FOMC.

The ideal friendly pattern suggests a move to 4008 and then a fall to 3880 for the most bullish situation for the S & P and then higher into the week of August 1-3rd and lower into August 11th.

We have the most complex geo-cosmic and political cycles the week of July 31-August 6th and we definitely see volcanoes and earthquakes but usually, they do not impact the US markets. What kind of political craziness we have will be more of a factor. We still see a pullback into August 11^th but will that be some kind of B wave or 2^nd wave rather than a new low to 3450?

There are cycle highs into mid-September. Every day is a new puzzle piece and we need to see where we are into July 28th and August 11th to decide whether a buy is significant.

The bear market low is not until Nov. 2023 so in the end, investors will be disappointed.

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Bubbling Financial Crisis Emerging

There are a lot of disturbing headlines out there as we climax into a crisis in early August when we have a cluster of volatile cycles July 31-August 6th but much of that will be felt before.

The Saudis are willing to move away from the Petrodollar which will devastate the United States’ dominance. On July 22^nd, Europe could be in crisis with no nat. gas leading to an even steeper fall in the Euro and collapse of European stocks and bonds and its spillover to the world. A US rail strike is set to hit on July 18^th and you think we have supply chain problems already? Suddenly a technical rally on the dollar index this winter to 11900 and a fall in the Euro to 9100 does not seem that absurd. Meanwhile, 62,000 Unvaxx’d guards, reserve Soldiers are facing a loss of pay as the army prepares to enforce vaccine mandates. Get ahead of the curve as things are starting to heat up. The biggest hope for this market is a huge Chinese liquidity injection like they did in 2008 but given they want deflation to buy everything up cheaper, sure they will delay it. Some Chinese bank runs are happening. If you are missing these stories you had better move away from mainstream media. Stay on top of the impact of all these events with Fortucast Timers. It’s going to get volatile out there.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

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MORE BEAR COMING

Last month, a few days before CPI, the market started down and then accelerated. The stock market has fallen enough this morning to at least signal that the S & P will go to 3700 if not 3665 and if we get a friendly surprise on Wednesday, it may recover on Thursday. We are not hopeful with cycles. The April 21-28th cycle is repeating and the market fell 9% during that time and that starts on Wednesday and goes into the 23rd. We do expect the market to take out the late June low. Stay on top of our strategies with Fortucast.

Barry

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Relief at the gas pump coming?

We have seen the break in the crude complex coming with the CRB topping and projecting 215-225 and the XLE having topped early reflecting profit-taking in oil stocks. With crude under 100.00, we can finally confirm projections to 93.33 and 89.58 next to get five waves down. The final projection for crude may be to 84.00 and cycle lows dominate into at least early August and we are looking further out. This will of course help gasoline.

All markets need a break and fears of a recession are killing crude now. We still have higher prices for a while so enjoy this break while you can.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

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All that glitters –is gold?

Cycles and patterns on gold and silver are key places in price and time. Silver is seasonally higher in July and hit the key 1930 region. At the worst, it should rally to 2100 this week and do another low to 1850 but it may be totally done and start a move to 2450 and eventually higher. We should note that the London Metals Exchange will be stopping the sales and delivery of silver futures starting in July and they cited diminishing trading volume but you know the World Economic Forum has their mitts in the works as they want to move to electronic money and silver is a major threat. Time to buy those bags of silver quarters before 1964 while they are cheap.

Gold also hit a key level and at the worst would go to 1772 and once it goes over 1835 should start a move up to 2060 this summer. GDX, or the gold miner’s index also hit a very key level and had a hook bottom.

It is important to buy oversold conditions when they look the worst. We have those opportunities. Watch metals ETFs with GLD and SLV in our ETF timer and gold and silver futures in our Financial Timer. Only 97.00 for a one-month trial.
-Barry

Financial Market Timer

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Stock Market Retracement?

Many are worried about new lows coming right away for the stock market. We think that the S & P is retracing the 300 gains from the May 17th low and will hold 3740 on S & P can and then have a strong rally of another 300 S & P points the week of July 4-11th. This may be the last point to exit stocks as the week of July 11-15 looks down hard and we worry about difficult cycles into early August sending the stock market deeply lower into September and possibly for many months.

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Any Hope for Gold and Silver?

Gold and silver continue to give us false hopes and then fall flat on their backs. It’s a bit like the cartoon strip Peanuts where Lucy holds the football for Charlie Brown and then pulls it out from under him so he falls on his back. Gold is close to breaking again and if 1809 comes out we could see 1790 and 1772 before it sets up a buy finally. That may happen into Monday the 26th. Silver is holding up better but much under 2080 and silver could fall to 2000 and 1930 to deflate the metals bulls. We do like metals cycles this summer so we will want to be buying GLD and SLV and futures so keep an eye on it. Stay on top of our latest thinking with Fortucast.

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FINANCIAL MARKETS: CHANGE IS IN THE AIR?

(6/19)

This past week and the next week of June 20-21st have been on our radar for a major inflection point for a while. We see the stock market at least doing a 3-week rebound but it may be too little too late. It probably is because crude will give it up giving hopes that inflation will wane. Gold and silver are starting to look higher into mid-July and late August. Interest rates and bonds are very oversold and due for a bounce. Bitcoin may also be ready for a dead cat bounce but its cycle lows are not complete until September. so maybe we get 13800 or lower before it’s done. We are skeptical that cryptos will save the world and the fall has been too dramatic to think that a recovery high into March 2023 will be a new high.

The crude oil market is about to break down and a fall to 89 may develop and the July high may be a B wave bounce back to 106 but something bigger could hit. Oil stocks were signaling a temporary demise for crude. The CRB is also close to topping and doubts that 350 will come out some patterns suggest that the CRB would fall back to 250 and then go to 400 next year when crude could get to 235. That means we may get temporary relief from inflation later in the year but we have not completely timed it. Luckily, folks, markets do not go straight down but this mess is far from over and there is no long-term accumulation for stocks for a while.

The recessionary leaders copper and lumber are telling us the larger economy is in trouble with copper projecting 3.64 and maybe even 3.00 before it’s done. Lumber has also fallen off a cliff and may go back to 2.50 before it’s done as it’s too expensive to build homes as interest rates go higher.

Very soon we are going to have to look at alternative investments as the bell weathers are not going to make it. There is even a class of US Treasury bonds now that you can buy for 10,000 that will give you 9% and is adjusted to inflation. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the wheels are starting to come off the train and we had better get educated as the easy money plays are gone. We are working on revving up our ETF timer to support you with alternatives

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