FINANCIAL MARKETS: CHANGE IS IN THE AIR?

(6/19)

This past week and the next week of June 20-21st have been on our radar for a major inflection point for a while. We see the stock market at least doing a 3-week rebound but it may be too little too late. It probably is because crude will give it up giving hopes that inflation will wane. Gold and silver are starting to look higher into mid-July and late August. Interest rates and bonds are very oversold and due for a bounce. Bitcoin may also be ready for a dead cat bounce but its cycle lows are not complete until September. so maybe we get 13800 or lower before it’s done. We are skeptical that cryptos will save the world and the fall has been too dramatic to think that a recovery high into March 2023 will be a new high.

The crude oil market is about to break down and a fall to 89 may develop and the July high may be a B wave bounce back to 106 but something bigger could hit. Oil stocks were signaling a temporary demise for crude. The CRB is also close to topping and doubts that 350 will come out some patterns suggest that the CRB would fall back to 250 and then go to 400 next year when crude could get to 235. That means we may get temporary relief from inflation later in the year but we have not completely timed it. Luckily, folks, markets do not go straight down but this mess is far from over and there is no long-term accumulation for stocks for a while.

The recessionary leaders copper and lumber are telling us the larger economy is in trouble with copper projecting 3.64 and maybe even 3.00 before it’s done. Lumber has also fallen off a cliff and may go back to 2.50 before it’s done as it’s too expensive to build homes as interest rates go higher.

Very soon we are going to have to look at alternative investments as the bell weathers are not going to make it. There is even a class of US Treasury bonds now that you can buy for 10,000 that will give you 9% and is adjusted to inflation. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the wheels are starting to come off the train and we had better get educated as the easy money plays are gone. We are working on revving up our ETF timer to support you with alternatives

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Stock Market and Bitcoin Turmoil

So the stock market was down over 3% this morning and the bad news is that cycles are weak until at least next Sunday.

NQ 100 futures will easily get to 11047 but could fall to 10400 and S & P futures are not far from our target of 3690 and if we have that much time will it fall more.

Bitcoin broke the key 25000 are and has been falling with NQ. Larger cycle lows for Bitcoin are not due until September and it probably will be down another week before it bounces. The summer does not look great either based on our analysis below.

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TENSE CYCLES FROM LATE JULY INTO MID-AUGUST

(6/9 ) We have seen these cycles produce race riots in the past as in the 2014 St. Louis riots given larger forces on the globe at work something deeper can happen in terms of more violent rebellion forces that erupt to do socio-economic breakdowns, and world debt and inflation and food scarcity. Depending on the country this could lead to rebellion against corporate and governmental corruption and incompetence, the completion of the small-business closures that started with Covid, growing crime waves, and food and fuel and water shortages. You can see all of these lurkings in the background and they may explode into a crisis by late July.

There may also be issues with storms and earthquakes, concerns about military and nuclear threats, cyber-attacks, failures of utility systems, or even the Internet. The stock market and many markets are not going to react well to all of this and it will bring the incompetence of the government to the forefront of people’s awareness but they may decide to do something about it.

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Wild Cycles the Next Few Days

The ECB meeting on Thursday and the stock market patterns would allow a breakout for the S & P to 4235 or 4280 over the next few days as long as 4075 on the futures holds. All the markets have been coiling waiting for D-Day and so let’s see if it releases all the pent-up energy. If we get a 2-3 day surge, the market may give it all up next week with the US hiking rates 50 bps on the 15th. Never a dull moment.
-Barry

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How to handle a yo-yo volatile stock market?

Yesterday’s 900-point DOW move got all given back and more as the rally was just a 4th wave. The depth of today’s fall tells us that cash S & P will at east go to 3930 and pull futures to 3920. If we are to get a 2nd wave to bounce off of Thursday’s massacre, it is most likely on Friday with Sunday and Monday looking more difficult than even today.

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Grains are far from Done to the Upside.

This week is a rare pullback week for grains and we should be buying Sept. call options or ETF for grains like CORN, SOYB, or WEAT into Friday.

Larger patterns still point to 1771-80 short-term on July beans and 1875 into later in the spring. Corn should hit 854 if not 884 before we worry about a pullback and July wheat is projecting 1225 and 1397 after this week’s pullback. Wild weather cycles continue this year, Ukraine and Russia produce 29% of the world’s wheat and cold and wet springs in the Midwest may force more corn into soybeans as the last safe planting date is May 10th. Fertilizer prices are through the roof and some places cost 5 times what they cost last year, and this eats into profit and we need these high prices to keep things going.

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What’s up with silver and gold? Copy

What’s up with silver and gold?

Silver went to key support at 2240 much faster than we imagined and we do not have cycle lows until July. We can easily get to 20.40 and 19.00 before it’s done with gold still having two more ledges to fall to at 1820-26 and then 1720-26. Gold is probably not going to take out 1890 now for a bit. The banks do not want anything to compete with their worthless paper money and electronic money plans.

We should note that the London Metals Exchange will be stopping the sales and delivery of silver futures starting in July and they cited diminishing trading volume but you know the World Economic Forum has their mitts in the works as they want to move to electronic money and silver is a major threat. Time to buy those bags of silver quarters before 1964 while they are cheap as silver falls. Stay on top of all our thoughts with Fortucast. When will gold and silver come into their own?

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What’s up with silver and gold?

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Can the Stock Market be Saved?

Gold is Swooning

With all the hype about gold and the great long-term fundamentals, the bankers who manipulate it with paper gold are still in control.
Gold had a technical breakdown last week and has a few floors to go to first at 1821 and then 1775 and then 1721 and that may take until July. Gold miners are also looking terrible and while gold was finally profitable a few weeks ago, if it falls again, the mines will not be profitable.
There are funds for short gold like GLL and there are techniques to handle short gold and selling out of the money calls. Gold’s day will arrive but for now, it is back in the pits. Stay on top of our strategies with Fortucast.

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Capitulation Day 1

NQ 100 is close to taking out the continuation chart low at 13000 and projects 12756. Some of the Mega-Cap earnings today or Wednesday will push it over the edge. We do see a recovery from Wednesday into Friday or Monday and it will seem that all is well until the Fed raises rates on May 3rd and the market will go for lower lows.Things are not as easy for the stock market as they once were as you will not just be able to buy and hold and tech stocks are just not what they used to be and you will have to pick things that will go up like grain funds like CORN and SOYB or get into funds like RYLD and QYLD that give you nice monthly dividends by selling covered calls. Energy funds are still falling and what happens if crude goes to 87.50 or 83.50 next month?
Barry

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