Category: ETF Timer

Breakdowns and the Deflation Cycle

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While inflation is happening, it takes time to work its way out of the system. The CRB index of 15 commodities peaked in June and has been going lower and projects 215-225 before it is done. In the process, it will pull many commodities lower into the late fall and help inflation.

There is a deflation cycle that runs from now into about Oct. 16th. It may be offset in a few places at times. Many commodities have hit key breakdown areas today as the dollar soars. Our projection to 113.00 on the dollar does not look so absurd now with T-notes hitting the 112.16 level and then some with a low of 111.25 this morning and maybe not being done until 111.05 comes in. Gold took out 1653-57 and is suggesting that 1625 will come in next week and eventually 1500 into late fall and silver is close to a breakdown under 1877 projecting 1853 and 1825.
Copper already took out 3.36 and our projection to 296-300 may not seem absurd anymore. Crude got below 80.35 at today’s low but will the Hurricane come to save it? If the Hurricane misses the gulf, then crude could break to 72.25 based on cycles. Natural gas also took out the breakdown area of 7.00 and should hold 6.47 by Monday and bounce next week but in trouble with the technical breakdown. Stock indices are also not done with their swoon Stay on top of all these markets with Fortucast timers.

-Barry

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World on the Edge and the Interest Rates

World on the Edge and the Interest Rates

As expected, the FED raised rates by 75 bps and projected 4.4% on the dot plot before they are done into 2023. We had been looking for the Dec. T-note futures contract to hit 112.16 and it got within 5 ticks from there today in a key time window. Markets do not go straight down so a recovery on Dec. T-notes to 114.16 or 115.20 is likely and if we are wrong 111.02 will hold.

The ETF for lower rates is TLT and it hit its long-term target of 105 but at the worst, it might get to 103.10. A bounce there to 113.61 or max 119.01 is in order but we do not see the trend for higher rates done although many see the FED capitulating and worrying about recession or if Europe goes to War with Russia, money will flee into US treasuries. We took profits today on TBT for higher rates.

There is a reason to be in a small long Note position for at least2-3 weeks in case something bigger happens but it’s hard for us to see the end of higher rates. These market change daily.

-Barry

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Surprise Drop for Energy Coming

Surprise Drop for Energy Coming

Crude oil went to the edge of a technical breakdown today at 81.75 on the Oct futures contract. When we look at cycles into the end of the month, they look lower and that suggests a break to 77.50 first and then 71.50.

Oil stocks as measured by the XLE oil stock index are also ready to break harder and we are wondering if 58.50 will come in next as the stock market is due to fall after the FOMC meeting.

Natural gas also issued a sell signal getting to 7.40 but it is recovering into the close but the damage is done and the next stop will be 7.02 and we wonder if lower numbers can come with cycle lows into Sept. 26th. That will pull UNG down.

It seems that the Biden administration will get the job done in getting gasoline prices down but the market is starting to fear recession and that is not a good long-term thing.

-Barry

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Stocks at the Breakdown Point

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Stock indices violated key technical levels on Thursday/Friday confirming deeper breaks. The S & P futures below 3900 is projecting at least 3730 if not 3600. NQ futures are starting to project at least 11340. The earliest cycle low would be shortly after the FOMC but it could extend. Is there any chance for a traditional seasonal rally in October? Can the bulls ever come back?

-Barry

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Stocks Back in Panic Mode

The PPI today at 8.3% was higher than last month and NQ is down 4.3% and the S & P is down 3.2% by 11 am Central time. Usually a week before FOMC, which is Wednesday, the 21st, the stock market stops rallying and with CPI, it appears to have started a day earlier. Oversold conditions may create a dead cat bounce into Wednesday but we are concerned that something bigger is happening again and we have cycle lows until at least Sept. 23rd.

World situation cycles are also a bit on edge. Russian/Ukraine tensions are increasing and we are moving toward Midterms and we worry about X-factor events disrupting a potential change in power. Europe is also on edge between energy, weather and World War 3. Our long-term forecast for a sharp fall in the Euro next year is easy to make but a 1 month recovery is possible after FOMC. We are watching key turns within a few days of FOMC for key turns for many markets. Dec. T-notes could get to 112.16 and the dollar might still do a divergent high and gold could get pulled to 1653 as it failed to break out above 1750 this week when silver did.

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-Barry

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MARKETS ON THE EDGE

MARKETS ON THE EDGE

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Today and this weekend we have a key cyclical change for about a week and it is starting to show itself.

Gold flirted with a breakout at 1740 today but needs to get through 1748 to issue a more solid buy signal for 1822-1828 into next week’s high.

Silver also flirted and just failed under key resistance. Both of those markets look lower on Monday so we will be patient.

Crude broke above the key 85.50 area to issue a bounce and buy signal for next week and we have higher prices into the 16th. Still, we do not think it will change the weekly chart downtrend for 60.00 into the fall. Natural gas is holding key support at 7.75 and should be higher next week and into the 20th so we may be out of the woods if we can get through the close.

The dollar issued a sell signal but it would be stronger under 108.00 and it may congest a great deal and the pattern is iffy short-term. The long-term pattern is there for 113 and 117 and 121 into next year but if FOMC on the 21st does only a 50 bps hike and signals they are not ravenous, the dollar may lose momentum. We still have more work to complete here.

Bitcoin is up strongly today but until 25000 comes out it may still go down more. Our NQ projection for next week is to 13000 and that may hold it up but we do see lower prices for NQ into the fall at 11300 into late October.

-Barry

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A Bounce for Stocks?

A Bounce for Stocks?

The stock market survived Powell’s comments today which were still hawkish: “History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy,” Powell said during a moderated discussion at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington. “I can assure you that my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done.

Cycles are positive through the end of next week but the market could pause before the Sept 13th CPI although it may not mean much this month because oil continues to be lower and should help curb inflation.

We are not friendly this fall for stocks and this rally may be the last chance to unload stocks that are underperforming as a fall to 3233 on the S & P into the 4th quarter seems likely. We do not see a buying opportunity for a while and bear markets often last at least 2 years.

-Barry

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Crude and Natural Gas in Trouble This Week.

Crude oil broke the key 85.00 regions today and projected 77-78.00. That could be in by Friday/Sunday and then bounce to 94.00 max. could start but it would then project a late fall low down to 60.00. That does not bode well for energy stocks for now. It seems that the Biden administration will be successful in getting gasoline and inflation under control before the elections.

Natural gas also broke and projects 7.09 by the end of the week and that will pull UNG or the ETF for natural gas stocks down to 25.50 or so.

These markets will come back as winter comes. Natural gas cycles are supportive into early October and Europe is in big trouble with Russia completely cutting off supplies and the pipelines of current natural gas stocks will not move unless the new supply is pushed through. We do have natural gas going back up to 10.50 and 11.50 and 12.50 this year easily and it will push UNG back up.

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Dollar Breakout and the demise of the Euro

Dollar Breakout and the demise of the Euro

The dollar issued a long-term breakout signal by taking out the 110.00 regions and it projects 117 and 121 long-term into the year 2023. Higher interest rates to 3.75% or 5% will continue to push dollar demand. In the same breath, the Euro is closer to quickly falling to 94.00 and eventually 91.00 and lower and given the energy and inflation crisis in Europe and potential spillover of the Ukraine war if Nato is dumb enough to engage Russia. It’s hard to imagine Europe pulling out of its tailspin. You can invest with ETF’s like UUP for long dollars or EUO for short Euros or you can do futures or other vehicles. It is a good long-term investment.

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-Barry

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Time for Metals?

Time for Metals?

Gold completed a key pattern today at 1720 and could get a bit lower to 1713-16 but not expecting anything more. Cycles are positive into mid-September and we should at least get up to 1882 on Dec. gold.

Dec. silver has key support at 1732 which is just about in and should start recovery to 2282 into mid-September.

Metals have been doggy and the bankers have a way of selling them but we have very key patterns and cycles complete here and something will happen.

There are also patterns that could suggest that this will be the lowest area for silver over the next few years.

Barry

Financial Market Timer

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