Category: Financial Markets Update

CHINA AND JAPAN’S IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.

A few key fundamental factors overhanging the markets. China is going into its Lunar New Year this weekend and the idea is that they will be more active during this holiday, and after, and they will need more energy support crude. . It will also be tough to handle inflationary pressures once their economy opens back up. This may be a reason for the influx of investor money in commodities this week.

Japan’s failure to control the 10-year price of their 10-year bond, despite 78 billion in QE, is giving signs that their Central Bank could break. We also have the looming US debt ceiling crisis hanging over the market. This has hammered the dollar with key support at 100.54 if 101.20 comes out. All of these factors support being in Bitcoin and metals and we had noted Bitcoin cycles are due to peek into next week and gold may just not pull back enough to let us in at decent levels. We are also at a point where a 2nd wave correction is due on stocks into the FOMC meeting. When will it start and where can we buy stocks for a Feb. rally?

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Major Turns for Financials About to Happen

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1) T-notes could get up to 115.28 and the
dollar got to 101.72 and 101.40-50 should hold.

2) Gold is close to the 1920 target and silver still cannot get to ideal pattern completion at 2450.

3) Crude oil cycles are an exception as we see cycle highs into Wednesday and the market is almost at 7960 and could go higher.

4) Some Bitcoin cycles suggest holding up into the 23^rd but that would not go with our NQ cycles that are suggesting topping.

We should expect 3 wave corrections in the stock market into the end of the month and also bonds should retrace and a recovery in the dollar to 105.50 will happen and a larger retracement in gold with silver needing to go to 2270 or 2224.

So the next few sessions are transition periods so act accordingly to bank profits and by early next week there will be some shorts to do for a few weeks.
Today is profit-taking before a 3-day weekend so it’s unclear if the upper numbers on stocks and bonds will hit on Sunday/Monday/Monday night or at all depending on weekend news. Stay on top of these markets with a 1 month trial of the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer for 97.00.

Exciting Week in Financials Ahead.

Heavy events week with Powell’s speech on Tuesday, China CPI Weds, US CPI on Thursday, and Friday US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The stock market could hold up into Wednesday at the latest before taking a breather.

1) Stocks could hold up as long as Wednesday and the upper target on the S & P futures is 3984. There do appear a few more places for entries either at the end of this week or into late January and Feb. is a better month for the market to take off and accelerate.

2) Watch breakout above 11450 for acceleration in NQ 100.

In both of these cases, if this happens, we may not get the big pullback until the end of the week.

3) Watch the dollar index at 102.07 for a minimum pullback and temporary low

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Is the Stock Market Ready to Roll?

Friday’s strong showing at our earliest time window for a bottom was a first positive sign. Cash S & P has early resistance at 3920-25 and 3940-5 and then could have a deep pullback to cash 3840 later in the week. Many ETFs we follow would look better if they have more significant secondary lows like XLE for energy stocks down to at least 8100 and XLU for utilities down to 66-67 and XLV for Health Care down to 127.50. We may not get it. Gold is also about to bump against major resistance and is rather overbought now even if larger cycle highs are not due until the first week of March. These markets continue to be quite volatile so stay in touch with our major daily research by subscribing to the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer. One month trial for 97.00. Click here.

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Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

Market Corrections Post-FOMC meeting on Dec. 14th

The stock market has confirmed a temporary high and is starting a correction at least into Dec. 16th. When is the next entry for shorts? How it reacts off of the Dec. 16th low will be important to see if it will continue lower into early January. Silver has confirmed a high and also gold and they should break the whole month. Crude oil confirmed a breakdown to much lower numbers now. Stay on top of our projections and ways to trade these exciting markets with the Fortucast Timers.

-Barry

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When Does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

When does the Post-Powell Hang-over Period Come?

A close look at the Powell press conference does not reveal that it is that dovish and it was widely felt that the Dec. rate hike would only be 50 bps. already so why the extreme reaction? Most of the Fed governors are still hawkish and the market was just trigger-happy to buy going into the first of the month. We have a cluster of turning points for stocks and metals into Dec. 5-6th and usually, the market is lower a week before the FOMC announcement on Dec. 14th.

Gold projects 1848 for pattern completion and the dollar is close to key support at 104.05 and 103.72. The S & P probably will not get through 4154 on futures. The bigger question, is how much does the market go down in December, when does it stop and what does next year look like?

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-Barry

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LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

LAST STOCK MARKET RALLY FOR THE YEAR JUST ABOUT DONE

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Stocks have had a nice bounce but we doubt 4100 on cash will come out by Friday or Sunday night and cycles turn negative into the end of the month and actually into the end of the year and into early January. Not sure the FOMC will cooperate with enough dovish language to make people happy. The good news is that we do see a January/Feb. rally coming and we have worked on our 2023 forecast. For now, if you need to take profits on stocks that you do not like, look at Friday/Monday. We will wait to buy and invest until later. Gold also gave a sell signal on Wednesday and crude oil does not look great next week. Stay on top of our daily projections and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Timers. One month’s trial is 97.00.
-Barry

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LARGER PATTERN AND CYCLICAL SUMMARY JULY 9, 2019

LARGER PATTERNS AND CYCLICAL SUMMARY : Computer models for gold the last 2 weeks had suggested 1442-4 for gold and a pullback go 1348-1360 for a 4^th wave. Bitcoin is probably done for now but once US stocks top and the next summer crisis develops the buyers will be back. T-notes back to the 4^th wave to 126.12 or 126.03 which is still needed. We do not have to do a divergent high to 129.00 and the larger cycle suggests higher rates into January 2020 although it may not be clear during congestion this summer. S & P needs to complete to 3040-3050 before the summer sale will set up. Silver has a chance to pullback to 1408-10 if gold gets to 1360. Crude oil is congestive but has not completed a weekly chart sell signal and need a close under 5650. We are open to a divergent high to 6089.

Cycle are particularly volatile the next few days so even if there is a negative reaction to Deutshe Bank, they may quickly buy it back.

Metals, crude look higher this week

FOR MONDAY: (11/19) The week before Thanksgiving is usually frustrating for traders. By late Monday, traders are disappearing and markets stay in useless ranges with pattern waiting to be completed. Dips on stocks will be bought for a Thanksgiving rally only to give it back early next week. Metals and crude look higher this week even if we have a Monday/Tuesday pullback here. T-notes could hold up an extra week but minimum target is close.Continue reading

Not enough of a definitive reversal signal for stocks

FOR FRIDAY: (11/16) Not sure anyone wants to trade after Thursday’s whippy action. Not enough of a definitive reversal signal for stocks without a close above 2750 so will see how it acts overnight. End-of-the-week congestive profit-taking may not give us new clues right away on the congestive markets like gold and silver.Continue reading